The Germans are likely to top in one of the more straightforward groups in the CWC. However, who will join them? It could be the Brazilians.
| CWC Group F Qualfication | Odds |
|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund | -225 |
| Fluminense | +225 |
| Ulsan | +1400 |
| Mamelodi Sundowns | +2500 |
Odds courtesy of BetMGM. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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2025 Club World Cup Group F may cause an upset
In 10,000 simulations from Opta Analyst, Borussia Dortmund have come out on top 74.9% of the time. They have a 92.7% chance to reach the next round. The big question is, who will join them? The team poised to finish bottom might still contend for second place.
Borussia Dortmund (-225)
Undoubtedly, Dortmund are the strongest side in Group F. They are likely to dominate their opponents in their first-ever appearance at the Club World Cup. Meanwhile, they didn’t have a good domestic season, having finished fourth in the Bundesliga.
However, they’re always a staple in the UEFA Champions League and have secured their spot in this competition as 2024 finalists. They enter this tournament on the back of six straight victories, all of which saw them score at least three goals.
Most of Niko Kovac’s squad is available, with only Nico Schlotterbeck a long-term absentee. Geo Reyna, Julian Brandt, Jamie Gittens, and Serhou Guirassy should play a crucial role in getting the Black and Yellow over the line.
According to Opta’s Power Rankings, the Germans are at least 120 places above the other three teams in this group, making them favourites to advance into the knockouts with ease.
Fluminense (+225)
Qualifying as the 2023 Copa Libertadores winners, Fluminense will make their second appearance at the CWC. However, they will be eager to forget their previous one, having been dominated 4-0 by Man City in the 2023 final.
Their form has declined since that triumph, as they didn’t qualify for the 2025 edition. Meanwhile, Flu have enjoyed a better start to their Brasileiro Serie A campaign, as they sit four points behind the leaders after 11 games. They’re also unbeaten in their last six outings, winning five and drawing one.
Thiago Silva will be crucial as a leader as the 40-year-old continues to play at a high level. The Brazilian season has recently kicked off, so Fluminense could be in peak condition. In contrast, their European counterparts are coming off a long season.
Renato Gaucho’s long list of players in the infirmary is a concern. Top scorer German Cano, veteran forward Keno, and midfielder Agustin Canobbio are all sidelined due to injury. That is worrying, as 12 of the club’s 15 goals this season have come from one of those three players.
However, bookmakers have the Brazilian team as favourites to join Dortmund in the next round of the CWC. Meanwhile, Opta gave them a 39.4% chance of getting out of Group F.
Ulsan HD (+1400)
South Korean side Ulsan have won the AFC Champions League twice and are getting ready for their third appearance at the Club World Cup. Ulsan have been dominant in domestic football, having won the K League 1 three consecutive seasons.
However, they’ve started the season slowly, winning just one of their last four, drawing two, and losing one. As a result, they find themselves six points behind leaders Jeonbuk, even though they have played two additional games.
Their record in this competition isn’t promising. They have finished sixth in both editions in which they participated, meaning they have lost every match. Unexpectedly, bookies have given Ulsan a better chance of reaching the next round than Mamelodi Sundowns.
Mamelodi Sundowns (+2500)
The South African league champions have been flying high. They’ve clinched their eighth title in a row by winning the Betway Premiership by a staggering 12 points. However, they will be disappointed as they’ve lost the CAF Champions League final to the Pyramids earlier this month.
The Brazilians, as they’re affectionately known, will make their second appearance at the CWC since 2016, where they lost both games. However, under the mentorship of Miguel Cardoso, things could be very different this time.
While Masandawana’s side largely feature local players, there are a few foreigners who’ve made a huge difference in the team, including Lucas Ribeiro Costa from Brazil. He was the league’s top scorer with 16 goals and was efficiently assisted by the other frontmen, Iqraam Rayners and Arthur Sales.
This tournament presents an opportunity for the South African side to prove that they’re worthy of a global stage. They’ve been very consistent in recent years and will cause problems for the other teams in Group F.
Before the Sundowns lost to Pyramids in the second leg of the CAF Champions League final, they were on a nine-game unbeaten run, with six wins and three draws. Now, it’s about stepping up to opposition they’ve never faced before.
Sundowns slip under the radar
Bookies and football enthusiasts have underestimated Mamelodi Sundowns. They are offering great value to qualify alongside Borussia Dortmund from Group F. However, they’ve been poised to finish last in the group, which is a betting opportunity that shouldn’t be ignored.
According to Opta Analyst, Sundowns were the side that kept showing up second during their 10,000 simulations. The Tshwane side have qualified for the next stage in 47.1% of their tests. While the actual Brazilians, Fluminense, only have a 39.4% chance.
Kabo Yellow players are well-rested and have had enough time to prepare for this tournament. Their form suggests that they could be a difficult test for all the teams in Group F, including Dortmund.
Given Flu’s current injuries ahead of the competition, the Sundowns are likely to edge that battle. Meanwhile, both teams have enough firepower to see off Ulsan. The winner of their final group match on the 25th of June could join Dortmund in the knockouts.