Opta's Supercomputer Predictions for the Premier League 2024/25 season are out following a simulation of the season 10,000 times.
The final position for each team has then been averaged out to find each team's most likely final finishing position, giving us their final definitive look:
We are going to go through and compare their prediction with the title and relegation odds on offer out there to analyse the most value outright bets to make.
Premier League 2024/25 Title Odds
All odds are courtesy of William Hill, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
| Team | Odds | Opta Predictor's Chance of Winning PL |
| Man City | 6/5 | 82.2% |
| Arsenal | 13/8 | 12.2.% |
| Liverpool | 13/2 | 5.1% |
| Chelsea | 18/1 | 0.2% |
| Newcastle | 28/1 | 0.1% |
Man City @ 6/5
It should come as no surprise that Opta have Pep Guardiola's six-time Premier League champions topping their list, with City winning the league a massive 82.2% of the time, with the odds of course aligning with this.
That being said, they themselves aren’t all that great at just above evens, but there is some value to be made.
Arsenal have pushed them close of late, but the Citizen’s pedigree and class always seems to see them through.
The only thing that could seriously hurt them is FFP charges with 115 pending, but many see them being able to wriggle their way free of these and claim their fifth title in a row.
Arsenal @ 13/8
It may be disheartening for Arsenal fans to see the supercomputer only had them winning 12.2% of the seasons it played out.
However, there are still over 1000 occurrences of it occurring within the simulation, which is no small number, with the Gunners pushing City extremely close for two years running now.
Many see them as being able to do so again this time around, but stealing the title is another matter.
Considering the predictor, we feel the odds offered on the Gunners aren’t quite valuable enough, what with so much risk attached to the title chances.
Liverpool @ 13/2
Out of the 10,00 simulations, Liverpool managed to take the title 500 or so times according to Opta.
Much of their talent squad remains, but questions about the new manager Arne Slot are yet to be answered, and their summer business hasn't excited too many fans.
They were winners back in 2019/20 but times have changed since then, and based on the predictor the odds don't match up, but they were around and about the top of the table for some time last year, and they could end up kicking on.
Chelsea @ 18/1
Just five sides managed to secure victory in this predictor, with Chelsea claiming it 0.2% of the time.
Issues have been taken with the Blues' recruitment plans and ownership, but should it all work out for them, odds of 18/1 should prove immeasurable valuable to punters.
It is hard to look past those at the top, but Chelsea offers one of the best value bets heading into the 2024/25 campaign.
Newcastle @ 28/1
Newcastle are the only other side that the supercomputer saw claiming the title, with just 0.1% share of the of the victories, and whilst the implied odds of this may be 999/1, bookies have hedged their bets at 28/1.
Leicester's impressive 2015/16 run means we so rarely see odds like this anymore, but at 28/1 the Toon certainly offers some value.
It would need to all go right for Eddie Howe’s side, and even then this may not be enough, and according to Opta, they are one of the only ones with a chance.
Premier League 2024/25 Relegation Odds
All odds are courtesy of William Hill, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
|
Team |
Odds |
Opta Predictor |
|
Leicester |
2/5 |
23.4% |
|
Ipswich |
8/11 |
27.4% |
|
Southampton |
5/4 |
23.4% |
|
Nottingham Forest |
2/1 |
9.2% |
|
Wolves |
7/2 |
4.0% |
Leicester @ 2/5
Leicester ended up, rather surprisingly, being the least likely of three newly-promoted sides according to Opta's Supercomputer.
The Opta predictions may not have taken into account their supposed points deduction, but the bookies certainly are, putting them as favourites to go down.
Little true value could be drawn from this with or without the predictions impacting on it, as FFP has taken the sting out of their season.
Ipswich @ 8/11
The Tractor Boys didn’t find themselves bottom of the predictor, but the bookies are making no mistakes.
Ipswich have gone up in consecutive years now and whilst they have reached top flight, the ceiling looks set to come crashing down on them.
Lack of funds, and too much too soon is likely to prove their ultimate downfall, with their odds more than reflecting this.
Southampton @ 5/4
The Saints found themselves bottom more often than the rest, with the talent nor Premier League pedigree apparently serving them well in Opta’s eyes.
Perhaps too much stock was placed in their Championship finishes, nevertheless Southampton still look like a prime candidate to go down, just perhaps not with a 20th-placed finish.
The odds remain relatively strong for punters at just over evens, with the predictor seeing them relegated in well over 2/3 of their simulations
Nottingham Forest @ 2/1
Forest were close to being dragged into a relegation battle last term, and little has been done to remedy their position.
Odds of 2/1 are nothing to be sniffed at, with their price to go down offering pretty good value going into the season.
In 10,000 simulations, Forest went down around 32% of the time, with this reflected in their rather low but accurate odds.
Wolves @ 7/2
Wolves went down about 12% of the time in Opta's predictions, and perhaps one would have hoped for better odds than 7/2, but bookmakers will always hedge their bets.
Wolves didn’t look all that terrible last year, and whilst few moves have been made, not too much has changed, with Gary O’Neil still in charge having impressed last term.
The odds are valuable, and the predictor clearly fancies it, but we are wondering if it could've called this one wrong.