Lazio caused the biggest upset of the first round of fixtures when they beat Bundesliga giants Bayern 1-0 in Rome, setting up a fascinating second leg at the Allianz Arena.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Betting Tips
- Bayern Munich -1 on handicap @ 8/11 with bet365
- Over 3.5 goals @ 6/4 with bet365
- Jamal Musiala anytime goalscorer @ 11/5 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Spluttering Bayern should make amends at home
Bayern Munich and Lazio are not playing at the level either of them would want to be heading into a Champions League knockout-stage game but the German giants' impressive home record should make the difference as they bid to overturn a 1-0 deficit from the first leg in Italy.
That game turned on the 67th-minute dismissal of Bayern defender Dayo Upamecano. He was sent off for a foul on Gustav Isaksen, which enabled Ciro Immobile to give the Roman side a valuable 1-0 lead from the penalty spot.
Upamecano clearly didn't learn much from that incident as he was also sent off in Bayern's next Bundesliga game at Bochum. That 3-2 defeat was followed by a 2-1 home win over RB Leipzig and a 2-2 draw at Freiburg on Friday, when Bayern were pegged back in the 87th minute, but they have shown enough to suggest they can turn this tie around in front of their own fans.
Bayern have won 10 of their 12 home league games and a 1-0 loss to Werder Bremen was the only time they have failed to win in their last six matches at the Allianz Arena.
Lazio have already done better than in their last Champions League meeting with Bayern three years ago, when they lost both legs of the tie, but they have had a far from ideal preparation.
The Italian team have lost three of their four games since the first leg, going down to Bologna and Milan at home and away at Fiorentina, with their only success coming at Torino.
They had three players sent off in Friday's 1-0 home loss to Milan, with defender Luca Pellegrini dismissed after 57 minutes and Adam Marusic and Matteo Guendouzi seeing red in added time.
They will need to be more disciplined to hang on to their lead in Germany and it seems more likely that Bayern will get it right and win by multiple goals than the struggling visitors will be able to hold out in a hostile environment.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Tip 1: Bayern Munich -1 on handicap @ 8/11 with bet365
Second leg should bring more goals than the first
Only one goal was scored in the first leg but it was not as if Bayern did not have chances. They had 17 shots in that match but not one of them was on target.
Bayern have scored six and conceded six goals in their three games since then and attack is the best form of defence for them while Upamecano is suspended.
With Munich already having gone out of the German Cup, lost the German Super Cup against Leipzig and trailing Bayer Leverkusen by 10 points in the league, this competition represents their best chance of success and they should throw everything they have at it.
That includes Harry Kane, who has scored three goals in his last three games and is odds-on to score at any time in the second leg, and Bayern remain the highest-scoring team in Germany with 65 goals in 24 league games.
Lazio have lost half of their away games in Serie A and conceded six goals in total in their three Champions League group games at Celtic, Feyenoord and Atletico Madrid. With Bayern hungry for goals to save their season but lacking a key defender, there's a decent chance of at least four goals being scored in this game.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals @ 6/4 with bet365
Musiala can strike the right note
While Kane's odds to score in this game might not be for everyone, there is some value in taking his team-mate Jamal Musiala to get on the scoresheet.
The former England Under-21 winger now has 25 caps for Germany and more importantly for this bet, he has been a regular scorer for Bayern, with 12 league goals last season and seven in his 19 league games so far this year.
Musiala opened the scoring in the recent 3-2 loss at Bochum and put Bayern 2-1 up at Freiburg on Friday. With the home team needing to take a positive approach to this game the former Chelsea youth player should be at the heart of their attacking moves.
Bayern Munich vs Lazio Tip 3: Jamal Musiala anytime goalscorer @ 11/5 with bet365