Belgium are without a win against Italy in their last 5 meetings. The Belgians haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 7 match-ups too.
Best bets for Italy vs Belgium
- Draw or Belgium (Double chance) at odds of -170 with BET99
- Pio Esposito anytime goalscorer at odds of +145 with BET99
- Italy (1st goal) at odds of -120 with BET99
All odds are courtesy of BET99, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Putting our faith behind Belgium over the Italian rebuild
Although we expect Italy to open the scoring, Belgium have the stronger case over the full 90 minutes. They have the stronger and more experienced squad. Belgium reached the quarter-finals of the World Cup and pushed eventual winners Spain all the way.
As for Italy, they are rebuilding from a low base. Although they have back-to-back wins, those victories over Luxembourg and Greece were hardly convincing.
Mancini plans to hand several players their debuts in the Italian senior side this week, and cohesion takes time. The market rates Italy a 44% shot to win over 90 minutes. That leaves roughly 59% on the draw or Belgium. We can back the draw or a Belgium win at a 58.80% probability in the Double Chance market. These are fair odds to work with.
- Italy vs Belgium Bet 1: Draw or Belgium (Double chance) at odds of -170 with BET99
Pio Esposito’s scoring strike rate commands respect
Pio Esposito has made a flying start to his international career. He has netted five goals in nine appearances for the Azzurri. That’s some return for a 21-year-old striker still finding his way in senior football.
He’s the most obvious candidate to lead the line - and score - for Mancini. The striker’s club form backs up his international form too. He has scored 2 goals from 5 appearances for the reigning Scudetto holders Inter Milan. His two goals have come from 2.16 xG and 13 attempts, which are encouraging numbers.
With Courtois absent and Belgium’s central defensive pairing potentially unsettled under a new manager, Esposito could have opportunities to score. The market implies he has just a 40% implied chance of scoring anytime on Friday night. This appears relatively low based on his impressive start to 2026/27.
- Italy vs Belgium Bet 2: Pio Esposito anytime goalscorer at odds of +145 with BET99
Value on the hosts to start fast
Italy have scored first in each of their last 3 wins. They also opened the scoring against Bosnia before the shootout. A new coach at a full Olimpico should bring an early surge.
Belgium may have issues building an understanding within their starting lineup during this international window. Van Bommel has made 8 changes and lost his first-choice goalkeeper. New partnerships tend to leak early rather than late.
Although the Italians are only given a 44% chance of winning the match outright, the First Goal market looks more interesting. The market gives them an implied probability of 56.50% of breaking the deadlock. They’ve done so in each of their last 8 international games. Italy have also scored first in each of their previous 7 meetings with Belgium. This is the most obvious value bet from our trio of Italy vs Belgium predictions this week.
- Italy vs Belgium Bet 3: Italy (1st goal) at odds of -120 with BET99
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Italy 1-1 Belgium
- Goalscorers prediction: Italy: Esposito - Belgium: Lukaku
Italy host Belgium at the Stadio Olimpico on Friday night. This fixture marks the start of Group A1 in the 2026/27 Nations League. Both sides arrive under brand new management, which makes for a fascinating contest.
Roberto Mancini is back for a second spell in charge of the Italians. He replaced Gennaro Gattuso, who left in April after Italy missed a third straight World Cup. Bosnia won that play-off final 4-1 on penalties in Zenica.
Mancini has named a 34-man squad with nine uncapped players. Italy won 1-0 in Luxembourg and 1-0 in Greece in June. The Greece win came with ten men.
Belgium are now led by Mark van Bommel after Rudi Garcia stepped down. They reached the World Cup quarter-finals before losing 2-1 to Spain.
Van Bommel has made eight changes from that squad. Thibaut Courtois is absent following an agreement, and Jérémy Doku is injured. Youri Tielemans remains Belgium’s captain. Italy are unbeaten in the last five meetings between these sides.
Probable lineups for Italy vs Belgium
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Calafiori, Bastoni, Dimarco, Barella, Tonali, Frattesi, Maldini, Esposito, Kean
Belgium expected lineup: Lammens, Castagne, De Winter, Theate, De Cuyper, Tielemans, Lavia, De Bruyne, Lukebakio, Lukaku, Fofana