CONCACAF Nations League Finals: Christian Pulisic, Weston McKennie and USMNT are favorites, but could Alphonso Davies and Canada spring an upset?

CONCACAF Nations League history: 3-time champions

The expectations: Win it all. Welcome to the Pochettino era in full, everyone, hope you're ready. Of course, it would be unrealistic to expect USMNT to win every meaningful game under the new manager. But things better go well. The USMNT have never lost in this tournament, and with a better manager at the helm, the expectations are that they continue that streak. Pochettino admitted as much.

"I want to win the competition," he said this week, "because that is going to help us to build our confidence and trust in the way that we are going to need. At the same time, we need to be intelligent, to try to discover the best players and to build a strong core of the team that has the possibility to fight for big things. That mentality is about now, winning.

"There's not too much preparation, but being on together is to show there that we want to compete this weekend and we want to win. The objective is the World Cup, and I think we are translating the idea that we need to compete in our best way and win the tournament because I think it's important for the future. In one year, we want to compete for the big trophy: the World Cup."

There are some caveats, however. This is an injury stricken squad, with holes everywhere. Josh Sargent may be in fine form for Norwich, but he's a third choice striker. Antonee Robinson, the USMNT's best player not named Christian Pulisic, is out at left back because of a recurring tendon issue.

Meanwhile, there are concerns at the goalkeeper and center back positions. A full strength USMNT side probably walks this thing, especially with the veteran presence of Weston McKennie, and Gio Reyna in fine form. But even Reyna is in and out of the Dortmund lineup. Yes, the USMNT are favorites. But it might not be as easy as you'd think.

CONCACAF Nations League history: Fourth place 2023, 2024

Expectations: A free hit. Panama did the impossible - if perhaps slightly predictable - when they beat the USMNT in the Copa America group stage last summer. They are currently at No. 36 in the FIFA rankings, higher than Nigeria, Scotland and Norway. And although the U.S. put them away, 2-0, last fall in Pochettino's first match in charge, it was by no means a comprehensive victory.

Manager Thomas Christiansen is clear about his side's intentions, telling the media that they can't settle for fourth place.

Los Canaleros have decent footballing history, too. They made it to the 2023 Gold Cup Final, and have made it to the last two Nations League semifinals. Christiansen can also turn to an experienced squad, with six players tallying more than 50 caps.

They have Adalberto Carrasquilla, and former D.C. United striker Jose Fajardo - who scored the winner against the U.S. at Copa America last summer - will lead the line. Still, they are a level below the other three sides here, and are very much playing upset-seekers with a markedly weaker squad than those around them.

CONCACAF Nations League history: 2023 runner up

Expectations: Cautious optimism. Manager Jesse Marsch has Canada playing some good stuff, and their performance at last year's Copa America proves that they might be ready to make a splash in CONCACAF. He led Les Rouges to a semifinal appearance at the tournament, and with a strong squad, they seem well placed to pull off a surprise win.

Jonathan David is in a fine vein of form for Lille, and could be set to move to a major English club this summer. Meanwhile, Alphonso Davies is finding his best for Bayern Munich. Marsch hopes that all of that - plus depth in the likes of Alistair Johnston and Moise Bombito - will have his side prepared to spring an upset. He made his intentions clear prior to Canada's semifinal clash with Mexico.

"We’re not playing in these matches with anything other than the idea that we want to win,” he said.

Either way, this would seem to be a good run up to the 2026 World Cup for Canada. They have organized two friendlies this summer, facing Ukraine and Ivory Coast. Meanwhile, the fallout from a drone spying scandal seems to be passing. Everything could be falling in place for Marsch and Canada.

CONCACAF Nations League history: Lost in the final twice, third place in 2023.

Expectations: A restoration of pride. It has been a rough spell for El Tri, who have flirted with ushering an old era out before electing to keep them around. There is never a shortage of talent in the Mexico setup, but they haven't found the right person at the helm to synthesize it all in recent years.

Their response? Bring back a legend. Javier Aguirre turned the Mexican National team around in early 2002, and had them playing some fine stuff. And then, the famous loss to the USMNT at the 2002 World Cup changed things. Still, this is a manager who knows the landscape well, has a good relationship with the media, and is unafraid to rely on some big names ahead of the mini tournament. His outlook is simple:

“We just have to play good football. We have to play well,” he said this week. “We have to execute the game plan and play a perfect game against Canada if we want to advance. We can’t make small mistakes. I think Mexico is prepared and able to defeat Canada. I truly believe that. If we execute the way we think we can, we’ll play in the final.”

And remember, Mexico handed Pochettino his first loss in the new role, beating the visiting USMNT 2-0 last October. Still, Aguirre has a few tactical issues to figure out here. There remain questions as to whether aging legend Raul Jimenez and rising star Santi Gimenez can play up front together.

The loss of Chucky Lozano to a muscle injury won't be easy to overcome. The absence of legendary goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa is also a massive miss. Still, Mexico have the talent to win this thing.