Our betting expert expects a tight game in Columbus, with Japan potentially edging this friendly clash by one goal.
Best bets for USA vs Japan
- Both teams to score - No @ +100 with bet365
- Japan to win either half @ -120 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals @ -112 with bet365
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Only one team to strike in Ohio
On some fronts, it was a better performance from the United States at the weekend. The team created better chances in their friendly against South Korea, but again lacked conviction in front of goal. They failed to score once, despite creating an xG of 2.23.
The lack of a convincing striker is a worry for Pochettino, and there’s no quick fix to that problem. They’ve netted just twice in their last four matches against teams from outside the Concacaf region.
It’s hard to see them having considerably more attacking success in this match. Japan only conceded three goals in their 10 World Cup qualifiers. They also restricted Mexico to just one shot on target at the weekend in their goalless encounter.
Given that, there’s a strong chance that at least one of the teams will fail to score.
- USA vs Japan Bet 1: Both teams to score - No @ +100 with bet365
Japan to inflict more damage on the USA
While Pulisic remains the star, there are few other obvious goal threats in this United States side. No other player in their squad has netted more than seven international goals. That’s despite the frequency with which they play much inferior opponents in their own region.
They may struggle to impose any dominance against fellow 2026 World Cup finalists. By contrast, Japan have four players in their squad who have scored 10 or more times for their country. That doesn’t include the likes of Take Kubo or Kaoru Mitoma, both of whom are now established stars in top European leagues.
It’s therefore the visitors who should have a bit more quality to turn to as they bid to force a breakthrough. The Samurai Blue appear good value with an implied probability of 54.5% to win either half.
- USA vs Japan Bet 2: Japan to win either half @ -120 with bet365
Not many goals expected
We may see light rotation from both managers as they continue their preparations for next summer. The changes are also likely to come thick and fast after the break, so there’s potential for a slightly disjointed second half.
While in qualifying, Japan scored freely and were much better than their rivals, but Moriyasu may take a slightly different approach against stronger opponents. There were clues as to what that may be in the Mexico game. His 3-4-2-1 system ensures they are compact in central areas, and that match served up just 1.29 xG in total.
With the United States not clinical in the final third of the pitch, another relatively low-scoring affair looks likely here. There’s an implied probability of 54.1% for two or fewer goals.
- USA vs Japan Bet 3: Under 2.5 goals @ -112 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
The clock is ticking as the 2026 World Cup approaches, yet there’s little cause for optimism among USA fans. Mauricio Pochettino has so far failed to construct a team that looks capable of competing effectively at the event they will co-host.
Notably, 2025 has been a particularly bleak year for the United States. They lost home friendlies to Turkey and Switzerland in June, including a humiliating 4-0 defeat to the latter. An unconvincing Concacaf Gold Cup followed, while they head into this fixture after a 2-0 friendly defeat to South Korea on Saturday.
As for Japan, they drew 0-0 against Mexico in a drab friendly in Oakland at the weekend. After cruising through World Cup qualifying in Asia, Hajime Moriyasu’s side are clearly keen to test themselves against nations from other regions. They finished top of AFC Group C, winning seven out of 10 matches and netting 30 goals along the way.
Probable lineups for USA vs Japan
USA expected lineup: Freese, Dest, Richards, Ream, Arfsten, Adams, McGlynn, Pulisic, De la Torre, Weah, Balogun
Japan expected lineup: Suzuki, Sugawara, Watanabe, Seko, Ito, Endo, Kamada, Mitoma, Maeda, Minamino, Ogawa