Our betting expert shares his predictions for this match. Wales are struggling at the moment, which should help Norway secure three points.
Best Predictions for Wales vs Norway
- BTTS - Yes @ -149 with BetMGM
- 1x2 & Totals - Norway & over 2.5 goals @ -118 with BetMGM
- First goalscorer - Erling Haaland @ +190 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- Claim your BetMGM promo code
- Check out our guide to the best sportsbook promos to claim thousands in sports bonuses
- Learn about the best sportsbooks with our experts guide to the best betting sites
Wales can end their scoring drought
The primary issue for Craig Bellamy’s side has been their lack of potency in the final third. Wales created three big chances against Portugal and an xG (expected goals) of 0.85. However, they failed to find the net. Wales managed 10 shots and 0.62 xG against Denmark but again failed to score. Their finishing needs to improve for the remainder of the Nations League campaign.
The good news for the home side is that if they can create chances, they should be able to convert them against Norway. That has more to do with Norway’s defensive record than Wales’ finishing. The Norwegians are on a run of 10 games in a row in which both teams found the back of the net.
That should encourage the home side, while Norway’s scoring record suggests they can find the net too. The most recent meeting between the nations ended 1-1 in 2011, with both teams getting on the scoresheet. With both sides capable of scoring, BTTS looks like the logical angle here.
- Wales vs Norway Bet 1: BTTS - Yes @ -149 with BetMGM
No respite for Wales at home
The pressure is certainly building on Bellamy to deliver a win here. Wales are still without a victory in 2026, losing four and drawing two of their six matches. Their last victory over a team ranked above 70th in the world came in 2023.
Being at home would usually offer some comfort, but not in this case. Wales have won just one of their last six games on home turf. That run is unlikely to end on Thursday. Norway won three of their previous five matches. However, one of those two remaining games was a 90-minute draw with England at the World Cup.
Their away form is also impressive. They’ve won each of their previous five competitive away games. The pick here is Norway to win and over 2.5 goals in the match. This bet has landed in seven of Norway's last 10 competitive matches.
- Wales vs Norway Bet 2: 1x2 & Totals - Norway & over 2.5 goals @ -118 with BetMGM
Haaland is the man to watch in Cardiff
Erling Haaland is the most feared striker in world football at the moment, and rightfully so. The forward has been in excellent form for both club and country for some time now. He has picked up where he left off with Norway at the World Cup, scoring seven goals in five matches.
The Manchester City forward already leads the scoring charts in the Nations League with three goals in his two appearances. That means he has scored 10 goals in his last seven games for club and country. Given his strong scoring form, the anytime goalscorer market offers little value, so the first-goalscorer market is more appealing.
He was the first name on the scoresheet in four of his last seven scoring appearances. Haaland is yet to score the opener at the Nations League, but it’s hard to ignore him at these prices.
- Wales vs Norway Bet 3: First goalscorer - Erling Haaland @ +190 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Wales 1-2 Norway
- Goalscorers prediction: Wales: Kieffer Moore - Norway: Erling Haaland, Oscar Bobb
The reality of playing in Nations League A has certainly hit Wales hard. The Red Dragons lost both games in this international window, leaving them bottom of the group without any points. Their opening defeat away to Portugal was hardly surprising, with Portugal dominating the shot count 23-5.
Craig Bellamy’s men then travelled to Denmark, where they were slightly better, but they still lost 2-0. A return home could provide Wales with a chance to change their fortunes. The home side still have one more match after Norway’s visit in this window, highlighting the need for a positive result on Thursday night.
In contrast, Norway’s maiden voyage in Nations League A has been a successful one so far. The Vikings lost their most recent clash with Portugal, although they dominated large parts of the match. That defeat won’t deter Stale Solbakken. His team played well and had already secured their first win in this division against Denmark.
The Norwegians are second in Group 3 behind Portugal, but level on points with the Danes. A win in Cardiff will place them in a strong position to overtake Portugal when the sides meet in Porto on Sunday.
Probable lineups for Wales vs Norway
Wales expected lineup: Ward, Roberts, Mepham, Davies, N Williams, Ampadu, Sheehan, D James, Johnson, Thomas, Moore
Norway expected lineup: Nyland, Aursnes, Ajer, Lysaker Heggem, Ryerson, Odegaard, Berge, Berg, Bobb, Haaland, Nusa