By contrast, Strasbourg have toppled Crystal Palace, Mainz, and more in the Conference League at home so far this season.
Best Predictions for Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano
- Under 2.5 goals @ -110
- Strasbourg Moneyline @ -120
- 2nd Half (Half with most goals) @ +105
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Another cagey affair anticipated
This tie involves two of the top three performing sides over the course of the entire Conference League this season. Strasbourg have conceded just ten goals in 11 matches and Vallecano have conceded just 12 in 11 games.
The Spaniards have kept a clean sheet in more than 36% of Conference League games this season. Although 73% of their games featured three or more goals, the situation is different at this stage of the competition.
Just over 55% of Strasbourg’s games featured three or more goals in the competition. However, only two of their 11 games have contained four or more goals. With everything on the line on Thursday, we expect another tense, low-scoring contest.
We can back two or fewer goals at a probability of 52.63%. This is the best value bet from our Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano predictions.
- Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction 1: Under 2.5 goals @ -110
Hosts to get the job done - but extra time feels likely
Strasbourg’s home form has been solid this season, both domestically and continentally. They’ve averaged 1.69 points per game in Ligue 1. Meanwhile, they’ve won three of their last four home games in the Conference League. This includes wins over Palace and Mainz.
By contrast, Vallecano average just 0.88 points per game away in La Liga. They’ve been far less convincing away in the Conference League, too. They lost in Athens to AEK and in November to Slovan Bratislava. They were even held to a 2-2 draw at Swedish bottom side Hacken.
Strasbourg have plenty of attacking talent to overturn a one-goal deficit, and we expect them to do so at a probability of only 52.63%.
- Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction 2: Strasbourg Moneyline @ -120
Second-half goal action expected
Strasbourg have scored the majority of their goals (56%) after half time in the Conference League this season. Meanwhile, 52% of Vallecano’s away goals in the competition also came after the break.
With the tie still finely poised, Vallecano are unlikely to take many chances in the first 45 minutes. They’ll aim to frustrate O’Neil’s men and keep the home fans quiet. Consequently, a goalless first half isn’t impossible in this match.
However, we do expect Strasbourg to eventually break Vallecano’s resolve. It may take until the second half to do so. That’s why we’re happy to back the second half to feature more goals than the first at a 50% probability.
- Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction 3: 2nd Half (Half with most goals) @ +105
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Strasbourg 1-0 Rayo Vallecano (2-0 AET)
- Goalscorers prediction - Strasbourg: Enciso, Emegha - Rayo Vallecano: N/A
This Europa Conference League semi-final clash between Strasbourg and Rayo Vallecano is finely poised ahead of the 2nd leg in France.
Strasbourg narrowly lost the first leg 1-0 in Spain. Gary O’Neil’s side were kept at arm’s length by Vallecano, as they could only muster 0.21 xG throughout the contest. In fact, they are very fortunate to have lost by only one goal last week. The hosts recorded 24 goal attempts to their five.
However, they will use this to their advantage in the second leg on home soil. Home advantage has been a big deal for Strasbourg in their Conference League campaign thus far. They’ve won three of their last four home matches, including wins over Mainz and Premier League side Crystal Palace. The latter could be their opponents in the Conference League final.
Vallecano are likely disappointed that they don’t hold an even bigger lead going into the second leg in Strasbourg. After dominating large parts of the first leg, they only have a one-goal margin to show for it.
Given their away form this season, their fans are right to be anxious about their chances of holding onto their lead. They’ve lost ten times on the road domestically, which is five times more than their modest two losses on home turf. Inigo Perez’s side will once again be without Luiz Felipe (hamstring), Diego Mendez (knee), and Alvaro Garcia (muscle).
Probable lineups for Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano
Strasbourg expected lineup: Penders; Chilwell, Doukoure, Hogsberg, Omobamidele, Ouattara, Mourabet, Godo, Moreira, Enciso, Emegha
Rayo Vallecano expected lineup: Batalla; Ratiu, Chavarria, Lejeune, Ciss, Lopez, Valentin, de Frutos, Akhomach, Palazon, Alemao