Our betting expert expects an even game to develop, with Donyell Malen and Paulo Dybala causing problems for the 15-time European champions.
Best bets for Roma vs Real Madrid
- Roma to win or draw at odds of @ -110 on BetMGM
- Donyell Malen to score anytime at odds of @ +110 on BetMGM
- Paulo Dybala 1+ assists at odds of @ -240 on BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Roma to stay unbeaten at the start of the season
Following a long and successful spell at Atalanta, Gian Piero Gasperini initially struggled to make ends meet at Rome. Fortunately, things started turning around in April, coinciding with Giallorossi’s successful late push for Champions League qualification.
With an excellent start to the season, Roma are now on a 14-game unbeaten streak across all competitions. They look strong in the final third and, with 14 goals, boast Serie A's second-best scoring record this term. That’s from an xG tally of 13.6, second only to defending champions Inter Milan.
Real Madrid are struggling to control matches, while also looking vulnerable defensively on many occasions. Jose Mourinho’s side faced 21 shots and allowed four big chances in their opening European game against Inter.
Having lost two of their four road fixtures so far this season, Real Madrid could struggle in Rome as well. They do little to justify their status as odds-on favourites, and backing the hosts to avoid defeat could be the smart play here.
- Roma vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Roma to win or draw at odds of @ -110 on BetMGM
Malen to make amends for weekend red card
Roma’s weekend efforts at Como were hampered by a 53rd-minute red card for Malen. A rare occasion for the Dutchman to let his team down since a January move to Italy from Aston Villa.
The 27-year-old has been a revelation in Serie A. In a system that gets the best out of his talents, Malen has netted 20 times in 24 league outings for Roma. He also averaged a goal every other game in last season’s Europa League, including six outings for Aston Villa.
This season in the Italian top flight, Malen is averaging 3.7 shots per match and a goal every 66 minutes. His tally of 5.12 xG is also the highest in Serie A, surpassing Lautaro Martinez's figure of 4.9 xG.
Real Madrid have kept just one clean sheet in their past six fixtures. Los Blancos’ issues at the back suggest Malen is worth backing to score with an implied probability of 48%.
- Roma vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Donyell Malen to score anytime at odds of @ +110 on BetMGM
In-form Dybala to create another goal
Dybala is another key figure in Roma’s attack. The Argentine is expected to start, despite suffering a minor hand injury against Como at the weekend.
The 32-year-old has completed 132 successful passes in the final third in Serie A this season. That’s the third-highest figure in the division. He also leads Serie A in assists, with four in six league appearances.
Averaging 3.8 key passes per game in domestic football, Dybala should make his mark in this match. He can count on the movement of Malen and Matías Soule, who has also struck twice this term. Backing the experienced playmaker to register 1+ assists looks good with an implied probability of just 29%.
Roma vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Paulo Dybala 1+ assists at odds of @ -240 onOur analysis: Form of both teams
- Score Prediction - Roma 2-2 Real MadridGoalscorers Prediction - Roma: Donyell Malen, Matias Soule - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham
Roma have made a promising start to the season under Gian Piero Gasperini, currently sitting third in Serie A with 14 points. They even managed to avoid defeat against tougher opposition and had two draws in a row, versus Inter (2-2) and Como (0-0).
In the Champions League, the Giallorossi started with a 1-1 draw away to Fenerbahce. They now take on a Real Madrid side that already faced an Italian team on Matchday 1. Early goals from Kylian Mbappe and Fede Valverde sealed a 2-1 win for Los Blancos against Inter in September.
Real Madrid have already suffered two defeats in La Liga, both times as visitors. They lost to Real Betis 1-0 and then the Madrid Derby against Atletico (2-1) just before the international break. Fortunately, Real bounced right back with a 1-0 win over Villarreal on Saturday and are now set to take on AS Roma.
Probable lineups for Roma vs Real Madrid
Roma expected lineup: Gollini, Mancini, N'Dicka, Hermoso, Molina, De Roon, Kone, Wesley, Dybala, Soule, Malen
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Dumfries, Konate, Huijsen, Cucurella, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius, Mbappe
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