Les Parisiens have averaged 2.62 points per home game in Ligue 1 this season, while Lyon have struggled for consistency in away matches.
Best bets for PSG vs Lyon
- PSG -1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ -118 with bet365
- PSG to Win & Both Teams to Score (Yes) @ +150 with bet365
- Ousmane Dembele Anytime Goalscorer @ -139 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Hosts to SECURE a comfortable victory
Five of the last nine games involving PSG and Lyon at the Parc des Princes have seen Les Parisiens win by at least a two-goal margin. Considering Lyon’s inconsistent away record this season, we expect PSG to achieve a similar result.
Five of PSG’s last seven home matches in Ligue 1 have resulted in Luis Enrique’s men winning by at least a two-goal margin. We can back this happening on Sunday at a probability of only 57.14%.
Although Lyon are in Ligue 1’s top five at present, they only have a 33% win rate on the road. Since their 3-1 defeat at Strasbourg in mid-February, they’ve won only one of their last six league matches.
- PSG vs Lyon Prediction 1: PSG -1 (Handicap 3-Way) @ -118 with bet365
Head-to-head record suggests Lyon will score
PSG have won their previous six league matches against Lyon. However, both teams have scored in each of those previous six fixtures. All six games featured three or more goals as well. Lyon average 1.33 goals scored per away game this season, which is above the 1.18 league average.
Les Parisiens are also overperforming their xGA at present. They’ve conceded just 0.62 goals per home game, despite an xGA of closer to one goal per game (0.90).
We can back the hosts to win without a clean sheet at a probability of only 40%. Given their recent head-to-head data, this selection offers the most value from our trio of PSG vs Lyon predictions.
- PSG vs Lyon Prediction 2: PSG to Win & Both Teams to Score (Yes) @ +150 with bet365
Value on Dembele to find the net
Ousmane Dembele has endured an inconsistent 2025-26 season. Last year’s Ballon d’Or winner has managed just 17 Ligue 1 appearances so far this term. Yet, he still managed a strike rate of 58.8%.
In fact, Dembele has racked up 15 goal contributions across those 17 matches, only 13 fewer than his tally from last season, despite playing 12 fewer matches. We can back Dembele to score on Sunday evening at a probability of only 51.28%.
Dembele’s strike rate in the last seven games in all competitions is 71.43%. It’s clear the 28-year-old is hitting form at the ideal time of the season. He will also be highly motivated to secure his selection in the France 2026 World Cup squad this summer.
- PSG vs Lyon Prediction 3: Ousmane Dembele Anytime Goalscorer @ -139 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - PSG 3-1 Lyon
- Goalscorers prediction - PSG: Dembele, Kvaratskhelia, Barcola - Lyon: Endrick
Fresh from their Champions League success over Liverpool, PSG return to Parc des Princes to face Olympique Lyon on Sunday.
Luis Enrique’s PSG are four points clear at the top of the Ligue 1, with a game in hand on second-placed Lens. PSG have been in unstoppable form at the Parc des Princes this season. They’ve won 11 of their 13 home games to date, losing only once to Monaco last month.
PSG average 2.62 goals scored per home game in 2025-26. They’ve also kept clean sheets in more than 69% of their home fixtures. Enrique’s men have also scored first in 92% of their home games, well above the league average (50%) for home sides.
Lyon have been heavily reliant on their home form this season, recording an average of 2.21 points per home game. They’ve averaged just 1.33 points per away game and are winless in their last four away trips. Their xGA on the road is 1.45, which is greater than their xG (1.32).
The visitors still have a chance of reaching the third and final Champions League qualification spot. They are two points behind Lille with five matches remaining. This weekend, they will also be without the suspended defender Nicolas Tagliafico.
Probable lineups for PSG vs Lyon
PSG expected lineup: Safonov, Hernandez, Hakimi, Zabarnyi, Beraldo, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Lee, Barcola, Kvaratskhelia, Dembele
Lyon expected lineup: Greif, Maitland-Niles, Vinicius, Niakhate, Mata, Mangala, Morton, Endrick, Moreira, Tolisso, Yaremchuk