After both storming through the first two rounds, No. 3 Michigan State and No. 2 UConn will face off in the Sweet 16 at the Capital One Arena in Washington D.C. on Friday night. The Huskies are the favourites, but the Spartans should give them a good fight.
Michigan State vs UConn Predictions - 9:45pm EDT - 3/27
- UConn Moneyline (-130)
- Under 136.0 (-110)
- Tarris Reed Jr. to Score Under 13.5 Points (+100)
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbook, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Michigan State vs UConn Odds
- Spread: UConn -2.0 (-105)
- Moneyline: UConn (-130)
- Total: O/U 136.0 (-110)
Michigan State vs UConn Picks
UConn Moneyline (-130)
With just a 2-point spread, the March Madness betting sites predict that this matchup will be one of the closest games of the entire Sweet 16 round. We’re inclined to agree, but we think that UConn has the slight edge.
Dan Hurley’s Huskies have been more consistent throughout the tournament so far and have more experience than Michigan State. You just have to look at how UConn performed against UCLA in the last round.
Much like Michigan State, the Bruins had a good season led by their defence and arguably deserved to be more than a seven seed. None of this mattered against UConn. The Huskies handled them easily thanks to a big 27-point performance from Alex Karaban. No player has more tournament experience than Karaban, who already has two national titles to his name.
The Spartans should make things more difficult for UConn than the Bruins did, but Karaban, Hurley, and the rest of the Huskies should win and will likely advance to the Elite Eight.
- Michigan State vs UConn Prediction 1: UConn Moneyline @ -130
Under 136.0 (-110)
The hallmark of both these teams this year has been their defences. Like always, Michigan State prioritises stopping good chances inside and being strong rebounders to limit opposition possessions. UConn, meanwhile, is a solid all-around defensive team.
The Huskies have the 11th-best defence according to points allowed per game and they also have the 13th-best overall defensive efficiency. The biggest factor for this match, though, is their ability to defend three-pointers.
UConn rank in the top 40 for both three-pointers allowed per game (19.6) and three-point percentage against (30.7%). Basically, the Huskies don’t allow their opponents to take a lot of threes and their opponents don’t make a lot of the ones they take.
Michigan State have remarkably made 45.6% of their threes so far this tournament. If UConn can make the Spartans cool down from beyond the arc, it’s hard to see this being a high-scoring game.
- Michigan State vs UConn Prediction 2: Under 136.0 @ -110
Tarris Reed Jr. to Score Under 13.5 Points (+100)
Tarris Reed Jr. started the 2026 March Madness tournament with a bang by scoring 31 points in UConn’s opening game against Furman. He followed that up with a lacklustre performance against UCLA in the Round of 32, where he went 3-8 from the floor and scored just 10 points.
This kind of streaky run is common for Reed Jr., especially against quality teams. In the regular season, the 22-year-old averaged just 13 points per game against teams who qualified for the NCAA National Tournament. It’s no surprise then that he struggled against the first Quad 1 team he ran into at the Big Dance.
The fact that Reed Jr. is playing against his old team makes things interesting, but dominating the paint and scoring 14 points is a lot to ask against an opponent as tough as Tom Izzo’s Michigan State Spartans.
- Michigan State vs UConn Prediction 3: Tarris Reed Jr. to Score Under 13.5 Points @ +100
Michigan State vs UConn Start Time
- Start Time: 9:45pm EDT
- Location: Capital One Arena
- Address: 601 F St NW, Washington, DC 20004
- TV & Streaming: TSN, TSN+
If our experts could only watch one Sweet 16 game this week, we would pick this one. It’s primed to be a close affair between two truly top teams. With all that being said, we think the favourite will win and predict that No. 2 UConn will beat No. 3 Michigan on Friday night in Washington D.C.