Mexico’s rock-solid recent defensive record and Serbia’s lack of motivation make it hard to back the Serbians with any level of confidence.
Best bets for Mexico vs Serbia
- Under 2.5 goals @ +107
- Mexico to win and Both teams to score (No) @ -120
- 1 goal (first-half goals) @ +160
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
- The BetMGM promo code gives players sports bonuses at sign-up
- Learn about more of the best sportsbook promos in the US with our expert guide
- Check out the top sports betting sites via our expert guide
Backing two or fewer goals in Mexico’s final warm-up game
Although most of Serbia’s recent games have seen Over 2.5 Goals bets land, they’ve struggled to score goals. Serbia have only scored eight goals in their last nine matches in all competitions.
As for El Tricolor, ten of their last 12 matches in all competitions have featured two or fewer goals scored. This includes part of their run to the Gold Cup final.
At close to even odds, Under 2.5 Goals looks like an appealing angle here. Javier Aguirre is sure to rotate his squad throughout the game, which will likely disrupt the general flow. Although the Mexicans should dominate, they won’t waste too much energy ahead of their World Cup group game in six days’ time.
- Mexico vs Serbia Prediction 1: Under 2.5 goals @ +107
Another win and a clean sheet for El Tricolor
Mexico have only faced Serbia once before, winning a November 2011 friendly 2-0 in Queretaro. This scoreline could play out once again on Friday. El Tricolor have kept clean sheets in six of their last seven matches. This includes shutouts against Portugal, Panama and England’s Group L opponents Ghana.
The only risk to this bet is Aguirre’s mid-game rotation affecting the team’s defensive shape or balance. However, Serbia are hardly Europe’s most potent forward line. They drew a blank against Cape Verde last week, a nation ranked 53 places below Mexico.
A home win and another blank for Mexico’s opponents at 54.65% stands out as the value bet in Friday’s Mexico vs Serbia predictions.
- Mexico vs Serbia Prediction 2: Mexico to win and Both teams to score (No) @ -120
Value on a solitary first-half goal
It’s a genuine surprise to see the probability of just one first-half goal priced as low as 38.46%. We already know that most of Mexico’s recent matches have been low-scoring. The numbers also support a low first-half goal trend.
Their last three matches have featured just one first-half goal. Since April, these games have been all about warming up the Mexican roster, preparing them for the World Cup finals. At this late stage, injury avoidance is everything, but maintaining positive momentum is still important.
Five of the last seven matches involving the Serbian national team have seen just one first-half goal scored. With a relatively low tempo likely, we’re happy to back one goal inside the opening 45 minutes at a healthy odds-against price.
- Mexico vs Serbia Prediction 3: 1 goal (first-half goals) @ +160
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Mexico 2-0 Serbia
- Goalscorers prediction: Mexico: Gimenez; Quinones - Serbia: N/A
Serbia travel to Estadio Nemesio Diez on Friday to be Mexico’s final opponents before the 2026 World Cup begins in earnest.
Mexico emerged victorious in their last warm-up friendly, overcoming a dogged Australian side in a 1-0 victory on Sunday. They are now unbeaten in their last seven matches, winning five and tying two. Their defensive record is something to behold, having conceded just one goal during this unbeaten run.
With positive momentum building nicely for El Tricolor heading into the World Cup group stage, a final win against Serbia would be the ideal send-off. Mexico head coach, Javier Aguirre, rotated his squad during the game by making 11 changes. This game will be primarily about giving his roster match practice, while shielding star players from potential injuries.
As for Serbia, they have lost five of their last eight matches. Their most recent 3-0 friendly loss to Cape Verde proved a major setback for the Balkan nation. Head coach Veljko Paunovic is likely to make wholesale changes of his own to avoid a repeat performance of the loss to the Cape Verdeans.
Serbia came within a whisker of qualifying for the 2026 World Cup. They finished just one point behind second-placed Albania in their Group K qualifying campaign. It’s hard to see them being motivated enough to land an upset in front of a vociferous home Mexican crowd in Toluca.
Probable lineups for Mexico vs Serbia
Mexico expected lineup: Ochoa, Gomez, Reyes, Montes, Gallardo, Lira, Vargas, Mora, Huerta, Quinones, Gimenez
Serbia expected lineup: F. Stankovic, Simic, Avdic, Mimovic, Pavlovic, Petrovic, Zivkovic, A. Stankovic, Zukic, Randelovic, Ivanovic