Our betting expert shares the best predictions for the Manchester derby, leaning towards the hosts causing an upset.
Best Predictions for Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Double chance - Manchester United/Tie @ -169 with BetMGM
- Anytime goalscorer - Erling Haaland @ -109 with BetMGM
- Player shots on target 2+ - Bruno Fernandes to have at least 2 shots on target @ +310 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Possible upset at Old Trafford
Last season, Michael Carrick’s first game in charge was against Manchester City. Carrick’s side were written off before the game, but they comfortably beat their rivals 2-0. United are no longer the timid side we saw under Ruben Amorim.
They still have weaknesses, but they should be at their best in a derby. United’s home advantage is another reason to back them in this match. Since their defeat to Hull, the Red Devils have been unbeaten in three matches in all competitions, winning two of them.
City don’t have many weaknesses for the hosts to exploit. They seem to have integrated well as a team. However, a trip to Old Trafford will always be difficult for the Cityzens. United have won two of the last four head-to-heads, so they could cause the visitors problems.
Carrick has built a solid team, one that’s capable of avoiding defeat altogether. He wants the loss to Hull to remain a rare setback. However, a decent performance is required at home if they’re to halt City’s progress on Sunday.
- Manchester United vs Manchester City Betting Tip 1: Double chance - Manchester United/Tie @ -169 with BetMGM
Haaland continues his impressive scoring form
We’re running out of superlatives to describe Manchester City’s number nine. Erling Haaland has started the season in familiar fashion, scoring goals regularly for Manchester City. The Norwegian forward has been sharp, especially after his impressive World Cup.
Haaland scored seven goals in five appearances in North America, and he’s carried that form back into his club season. He’s already scored three league goals in as many games. The forward enters this game on the back of scoring five goals in his last three matches in all competitions.
Against Porto during the week, Haaland led the match for shots (6), xG (expected goals) of 1.33, and touches in the opposition box with seven. In the league, he has an xG of 2.47 and averages 4.7 shots per 90. If he can produce those numbers at Old Trafford, he’s likely to get his name on the scoresheet.
- Manchester United vs Manchester City Betting Tip 2: Anytime goalscorer - Erling Haaland @ -109 with BetMGM
Fernandes offers value in the shots market
Bruno Fernandes has faced criticism for his mannerisms on the pitch, but his importance to United is clear. He remains central to their attacking play. Last season, he broke the Premier League record for the most assists in a single campaign with 21.
His goal return has improved, with four goals in four appearances across all competitions this term. His xG per match of 0.75 is the second-highest in the team behind Bryan Mbeumo. It shows how attack-minded he’s been this term. That xG is also the highest among the joint-top three scorers in the division, alongside Erling Haaland and Alexander Isak.
Fernandes took 15 shots in his three league matches, the most of any player in the Premier League. The Portuguese midfielder averages five shots per match, and he took three shots during the week against Sabah Baku. With his position now further up the field, Fernandes could easily record at least two shots on target against City.
- Manchester United vs Manchester City Betting Tip 3: Player shots on target 2+ - Bruno Fernandes to have at least 2 shots on target @ +310 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Manchester United 2-2 Manchester City
- Goalscorers prediction: Manchester United: Bruno Fernandes, Matheus Cunha - Manchester City: Erling Haaland x2
After their shock defeat to Hull City on the opening day, Manchester United have bounced back quite nicely. However, last weekend’s result away to Everton wasn’t ideal. They surrendered the lead twice and only took a point from Merseyside. Michael Carrick’s men thought they had won after Benjamin Sesko’s 88th-minute goal, but Ainsley Maitland-Niles equalised in the 96th minute.
United then returned to the Champions League on Thursday night when they hosted Azerbaijan champions Sabah Baku. The Red Devils were far more clinical, winning 4-0. That made it ideal preparation for the upcoming Manchester derby. Although it is still early in the season, this derby carries extra importance, and both teams will be highly motivated.
Manchester City have started positively since Pep Guardiola left the club. Enzo Maresca has quietly gone about his work and delivered the results needed to keep fans happy. Despite a difficult Premier League opener, City still found a way to win.
The Cityzens also started their Champions League campaign during the week. Maresca’s men faced a tricky tie away from home against FC Porto. However, they handled it well and left Portugal with all three points. City fans would argue that they’re in better shape now and are favourites to win the derby this weekend.
Probable lineups for Manchester United vs Manchester City
Manchester United expected lineup: Lammens, Dalot, Maguire, Martinez, Shaw, Tielemans, Santos, Mbeumo, Fernandes, Dorgu, Cunha
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Khusanov, Dias, Guehi, Gvardiol, Fernandez, Anderson, Foden, Cherki, Semenyo, Haaland