Our betting expert shares his Greece vs Netherlands predictions. Greece should not be underestimated after securing two consecutive group victories.
Best Predictions for Greece vs Netherlands
- Totals - Over 2.5 goals @ -139 with BetMGM
- Mexx Meerdink to score anytime @ +210 with BetMGM
- 1x2 - Tie @ +235 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Efficient output on both ends of the attack
Both teams have scored three goals in their two Nations League matches so far, averaging 1.5 goals per 90. The Greeks haven’t been particularly attacking in their recent outings, but they’ve been clinical with the opportunities they’ve had. They took eight shots altogether and got one of them on target against Germany. The one shot turned out to be the winning goal, with Greece overperforming their 0.72 xG (expected goals).
The visitors have a fierce attacking line, capable of causing problems for any defence lined in front of them. Unfortunately, their generation’s best scorer, Cody Gakpo, went off injured against Serbia. Meanwhile, Brian Brobbey suffered the same fate in their opener against Germany. Still, the Netherlands scored 12 goals in their last five matches, including five against Sweden at the 2026 World Cup.
Two of Greece’s last four matches ended with goals on both ends. Meanwhile, the Netherlands have seen the same outcome in nine of their previous 10 outings, translating to 90% of the time. The bottom line is that both teams are decent enough up front to get on the scoresheet at least once.
- Greece vs Netherlands Bet 1: Totals - Over 2.5 goals @ -139 with BetMGM
Taking it to the Mexx
Brobbey’s injury in the Netherlands’ first game forced Xavi to turn to his second-choice forward. Mexx Meerdink of AZ Alkmaar stepped up not just to fill Brobbey’s massive shoes, but he also showed that he can make a difference. Despite playing just 55 minutes after coming on as a sub, Meerdink recorded the most shots for his team with four.
His xG (expected goals) on the night was 1.22, which is remarkable considering the limited time he spent on the pitch. Unfortunately, he did miss one big chance but also won three fouls, the most for the Netherlands in the game. Although he failed to score in that game, Meerdink showed in the following match just how much of an impact he can make when starting.
Meerdink scored a brace against Serbia from five shots taken, three of which were on target. He overperformed his xG of 1.30 on that night, helping him earn the man-of-the-match award. Xavi is likely to put his trust in him against Greece, which is why he’s our top pick as an anytime scorer on Thursday night.
- Greece vs Netherlands Bet 2: Mexx Meerdink to score anytime @ +210 with BetMGM
Greece are very hard to beat
Greece head coach Ivan Jovanovic has reshaped his team and made it significantly difficult to defeat. After going through a string of five matches without a win, the Ethniki are now riding on a streak of two wins. The biggest surprise is not that they’ve won; it’s that they’ve beaten teams ranked much higher than them. For example, Germany are positioned 34 places above them.
The visitors are also unbeaten in their last two, having played their previous two at the World Cup. The Oranje squared up against Morocco and finished levelled at 1-1 in 90. Three of their last six outings ended in a stalemate (50%). One of those was a 2-2 draw against Japan, a team ranked 17th in the world at that point.
The Netherlands have enjoyed positive results in this fixture historically. They’ve won six of the last seven head-to-head match-ups, with the Greeks winning once. Given Greece’s current momentum and home advantage, the hosts should be good enough to avoid defeat in this one.
- Greece vs Netherlands Bet 3: 1x2 - Tie @ +235 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Greece 1-1 Netherlands
- Goalscorers prediction: Greece: Christos Tzolis - Netherlands: Mexx Meerdink
It is hard to tell this is Greece’s first campaign in Nations League A. Despite a very young team comprised of players competing all over Europe, they have been performing well. After two games, the Ethniki sit atop Group 2 with two victories in as many games. This puts them in an ideal position to reach the quarter-finals of the competition.
Head coach Ivan Jovanovic has done an admirable job since becoming Greece’s manager in 2024. This is by far the Greek national team’s most impressive run in years. The good news for Greece is that they have already played two of their away matches.
Few would have expected them to win against Serbia and Germany, but they’ve certainly made a statement with those results.
The Netherlands won't take anything for granted when they travel to Toumba Stadium on Thursday night. The Oranje are under new management, with former Barcelona midfielder Xavi now at the helm. He started off his tenure with a draw against Germany (1-1) in their opening match of the competition. He quickly got to his first win by defeating Serbia 2-1 away.
The Dutch enter this game in second place, two points behind Greece. A win here would ensure they head into Matchday 4 at the top of the group and in control of their destiny. However, as we’ve seen over the last week, Greece should not be underestimated.
Probable lineups for Greece vs Netherlands
Greece expected lineup: Tzolakis, Vagiannidis, Mavropanos, Retsos, Tsimikas, Karetsas, Androutsos, Zafeiris, Tzolis, Pavlidis, Kostoulas
Netherlands expected lineup: Verbruggen, Dumfries, van Hecke, van Dijk, van de Ven, Gravenberch, Veerman, Reijnders, Summerville, van Bommel, Meerdink