Our betting expert shares predictions for this must-win match between Ghana and Somalia. Being at home, Ghana is expected to come out on top.
Best Predictions for Ghana vs Somalia
- Which team to score - Only Ghana @ -286 with BetMGM
- Totals - Under 2.5 goals @ +135 with BetMGM
- Moneyline & Totals - Ghana & under 2.5 goals @ +185 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Somalia struggle to create chances
Playing at home, Ghana is the overwhelming favorite to beat Somalia. Yet, the Black Stars have a fair bit of injuries and absentees in their roster. They may not be at their attacking best, but they will likely be the team to score.
Somalia, meanwhile, has not reached this stage of qualifying by overwhelming their opponents. The Ocean Stars failed to score a single goal across their double-headed preliminary round tie with Mauritius. Nur’s troops had to rely on penalty kicks to get themselves into this position.
Their most recent five outings have seen them score just one goal in regulation time. Bilal Njie was the man responsible, and the visitors hope he gets another chance to score on Thursday. However, with four blanks in their last five games, the Ocean Stars may struggle to breach the home defense.
- Ghana vs Somalia Bet 1: Which team to score - Only Ghana @ -286 with BetMGM
Ghana are far from perfect up front
Somalia’s lack of attacking threat makes it difficult to see them scoring in Sekondi-Takoradi. However, the hosts have also struggled to produce convincing performances going forward. They average a goal per game in these AFCON qualifiers thanks to two strikes against The Gambia last time out.
The Black Stars have scored just three goals across their recent five outings. That’s an average of 0.6 goals per match. Those five matches produced an average of 2.4 goals per game.
Six of Ghana’s recent eight matches have produced fewer than three goals on the day. Meanwhile, five of Somalia’s last six matches have finished with the same outcome. It’s not a case of Ghana running away with this match by a hefty scoreline, as they’ve also demonstrated their issues up front.
- Ghana vs Somalia Bet 2: Totals - Under 2.5 goals @ +135 with BetMGM
Ghana’s quality to shine through
The home side will likely struggle to assert their dominance in this game, especially with a new coach at the helm. Players will need to adapt to Bjorkegren’s tactics, which requires time. Consequently, it won’t be surprising if this game were less fluent and cagey.
However, Ghana has plenty of quality in its roster, with players competing in Europe’s top leagues. The Black Stars should be able to secure a win on home soil against an opponent making its first appearance at this stage of AFCON qualifying. The hosts are ranked 70th in the world, a whole 130 places ahead of Thursday’s traveling party.
Although the only two head-to-heads were back in 2003, it gives us a general idea of where these nations are. Ghana won both World Cup qualifiers, including a 2-0 victory in the home fixture. The reverse fixture saw the Black Stars score five unanswered goals against Somalia. While that’s unlikely this time around, a win for the home side is.
- Ghana vs Somalia Bet 3: Moneyline & Totals - Ghana & under 2.5 goals @ +185 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Ghana 2-0 Somalia
- Goalscorers prediction: Ghana: Mohamed Kudus, Jordan Ayew
After failing to qualify for the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations, Ghana has been through a tumultuous 2026. Despite booking its ticket to the World Cup in North America, it could only manage one win. While the Black Stars did just enough to progress from the group stage, Colombia sent them home after the first knockout game.
Following that disappointing showing, Ghana turned its attention to qualifying for next year’s AFCON. However, the West African nation lost both games, leaving it bottom of Group C and with a real chance of missing out on the continental showpiece again. The poor start also cost Carlos Queiroz his position, with the coach submitting his resignation.
While the Ghana Football Association searches for a substantive replacement, Kim Lars Bjorkegren will oversee the team. He hopes his men can finish the campaign strongly in their next two games and keep their qualification hopes alive. Somalia, meanwhile, is not expected to pose a threat to any of the other three nations in the group.
The Ocean Stars also lost their opening two qualifiers, but they have a better goal difference than the Black Stars. As a result, they are third in the group and hope they can hold onto that position come the end of Thursday’s match. Notably, this is Somalia’s first-ever appearance at the AFCON qualifiers group stage.
Yusuf Ali Nur’s side therefore have little pressure on their shoulders and can approach the game with more freedom than their more established hosts. It would be a remarkable achievement if Somalia qualified for the AFCON finals at the first attempt. However, based on the results they’ve already produced, they could be in for a difficult evening this Thursday.
Probable lineups for Ghana vs Somalia
Ghana expected lineup: Ati Zigi, Lamptey, Djiku, Adjetey, Mensah, Owusu, Sulemana, Francis, Kudus, Adu, Ayew
Somalia expected lineup: Hussein, Mohamed, Gigli, Omar, Osman, M. Omar, Sharif, Suleiman, Nour, Hassan, Njie