Real were humbled 1-0 at Real Betis but bounced back with a rampant home win over Rayo Vallecano. Lowly Elche are next in Jose Mourinho’s sights.
Best Predictions for Elche vs Real Madrid
- Real Madrid Moneyline and both teams to score @ +137 with BetMGM
- Over 3.5 goals @ -125 with BetMGM
- Vinicius Junior anytime goalscorer @ +100 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Straightforward win for Real but Elche should score
Real Madrid are unbeaten in their last 17 league meetings with Elche. That record makes the away win a strong foundation for this selection.
Elche have scored in four of their last six home games against Madrid. They found the net twice against Real Sociedad last month. Mourinho's side have also conceded in every away game this season.
Their back line has changed repeatedly through injuries to Militão and Mendy. Elche have conceded in all five league games. Backing an away win and goals at either side at an implied probability of 42.2% looks generous.
- Elche vs Real Madrid Bet 1: Real Madrid Moneyline and both teams to score @ +137 with BetMGM
Leaky defence meets a ruthless frontline
Elche have shipped 2.6 goals per game this season. Barcelona put five past them at this ground last month. Real Madrid have enough to inflict similar damage.
Real Sociedad added three more in a recent 3-2 win. Elche have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season.
It’s fair to say Madrid are scoring freely under Mourinho, and Mbappé is in excellent form. They’ve hit four on three occasions against Rayo Vallecano, Real Sociedad and Málaga. Last season's meeting here produced four goals in a 2-2 draw. The risk is Elche's recent 1-1 draw with Athletic Club where their defence tightened up. However, it’s still a solid play.
- Elche vs Real Madrid Bet 2: Over 3.5 goals @ -125 with BetMGM
Vinícius is due a goal
Vinícius Júnior has scored once from 2.29 xG in La Liga so far this season. That gap points to a correction rather than a decline in his level.
The Brazilian started Saturday's 4-1 win over Rayo Vallecano. Vinícius also picked up a Ballon d'Or nomination this year. Mourinho continues to use him on the left of the front three. Elche have conceded 13 goals in five league games. Their full-backs have been exposed repeatedly in wide areas.
The risk is that Mbappé takes the chances and the penalties. Nevertheless, a 50% implied probability is a fair percentage for backing an elite player’s xG correction.
- Elche vs Real Madrid Bet 3: Vinicius Junior anytime goalscorer @ +100 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Elche 1-3 Real Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction: Elche: Buonanotte - Real Madrid: Vinicius Jr, Mbappe x2
Elche are still searching for their first three points of the 2026/27 La Liga season. A midweek visit from Real Madrid is unlikely to aid their cause either.
Martin Anselmi has racked up just two points from a possible 15 since the start of the campaign. Anselmi assumed the helm following the exit of Eder Sarabia. A narrow 1-1 draw with Athletic Bilbao on Saturday doubled their points tally for the season.
The hosts need to improve defensively, having conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game so far this season. They’ve already been thrashed by Barcelona and lost to ten-man Sociedad in front of their own supporters.
As for Real, they sit second, three points behind title rivals Barcelona. Kylian Mbappe scored twice in their 4-1 home win over Rayo Vallecano at the weekend. The Frenchman has shown no signs of slowing down since returning from the World Cup, having scored six goals in La Liga so far.
Jose Mourinho’s sole defeat during his second spell in charge came on the road at Betis. He’ll be desperate to right those wrongs and get back to winning ways in style. Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy, Raúl Asencio and Rodrygo are all sidelined. Mourinho may also have one eye on Sunday’s Madrid derby, which could influence his team selection in midweek.
Probable lineups for Elche vs Real Madrid
Elche expected lineup: Dituro, Sangaré, Redondo, Chust, Revivo, Morente, Morcillo, Villar, Valera, Buonanotte, Fer Niño
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Alexander-Arnold, Konaté, Huijsen, Cucurella, Valverde, Camavinga, Güler, Bellingham, Vinícius, Mbappé