Denmark haven’t tasted defeat at Parken since Spain visited in November 2024. Portugal face a side unbeaten in their last 10 home games.
Best Predictions for Denmark vs Portugal
- Denmark/Tie (Double Chance) @ -125 with BetMGM
- Under 2.5 goals @ +110 with BetMGM
- Under 0.5 goals (1st half) @ +230 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Portugal face a tough test in Copenhagen
Portugal arrive in Denmark after a narrow win in Norway, where they were second best for much of the match. Bruno Fernandes missed the trip to Norway through injury, leaving Portugal without one of their key midfielders.
Denmark are especially difficult opponents on home soil. They are unbeaten in their last 10 games at Parken. They dominated Wales in Sunday's 2-0 win, creating the better chances before securing the points.
Portugal were fortunate in Norway. They lost the xG (expected goals) battle 2.52 to 1.04 but won the match 2-1. Diogo Costa made several important saves to help Portugal hold on to their win.
With an implied probability of around 5.6% for a Denmark win or draw, the market gives Portugal around a 44% chance of winning. This could be the best value bet from our trio of Denmark vs Portugal predictions.
- Denmark vs Portugal Bet 1: Denmark/Tie (Double Chance) @ -125 with BetMGM
Expect Portugal to control the tempo
The early signs suggest Portugal are unlikely to play an expansive style under Jesus. They’ve conceded just one goal in his opening two games in charge. Neither match produced a high-scoring contest.
Controlling possession is central to his approach, allowing Portugal to make the most of their technical midfield. They prefer to dominate possession and slow the tempo when they take the lead. Diogo Costa has also been in top form in goals.
Denmark also tend to build up patiently rather than trading blows, especially against the top European nations. Their goals against Wales both arrived after half-time. Neither side is likely to open up early at Parken, so a 48% implied probability on two or fewer goals feels competitive.
- Denmark vs Portugal Bet 2: Under 2.5 goals @ +110 with BetMGM
A point would suit Portugal just fine
This has the makings of a tight, cautious contest. Portugal already lead the group after two wins. A draw in Copenhagen would be a satisfactory result for Portugal.
Denmark are unlikely to take too many risks on home soil either. They were held to a goalless first half against Wales on Sunday before Riemer’s side broke the deadlock in the 53rd minute. The Danes also have their 10-game unbeaten home run to protect.
The main concern is Portugal’s tendency to score early. Félix struck in the 22nd minute against Wales and in the 17th in Oslo. A goalless first half carries an implied probability of 30.3%, so the odds appear to account for that risk.
- Denmark vs Portugal Bet 3: Under 0.5 goals (1st half) @ +230 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Denmark 1-1 Portugal
- Goalscorers prediction: Denmark: Højlund - Portugal: Ramos
Portugal visit Parken on Thursday night aiming to maintain their perfect start to the 2026/27 Nations League. They top Group A4 with six points from their opening two fixtures, including an impressive 2-1 victory over Norway.
Denmark bounced back impressively from their 3-2 defeat to Scandinavian rivals Norway with a 2-0 win over Wales on Sunday.
Brian Riemer is expected to make few changes for the visit of the reigning Nations League champions. Albert Grønbæk (thigh) is absent again for Thursday’s game. Riemer is also without of Andreas Christensen, Alexander Bah, Kasper Dolberg, Patrick Dorgu and William Osula.
New Portugal boss Jorge Jesus could hardly have asked for a better start to his managerial reign. Back-to-back Nations League wins have vindicated the Portuguese hierarchy for dispensing with Roberto Martinez’ services this summer.
Cristiano Ronaldo was benched for the Norway game, while Bruno Fernandes was rested as he manages an ongoing injury. Both are expected to return to the fold at Parken.
Probable lineups for Denmark vs Portugal
Denmark expected lineup: F. Jørgensen, Kristensen, Andersen, Provstgaard, Mæhle, Hjulmand, Højbjerg, Isaksen, Damsgaard, Daramy, Højlund
Portugal expected lineup: Costa, Dalot, Dias, Inácio, Mendes, Vitinha, Neves, Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Leão, Ramos