The last 5 games involving Peru have seen both teams score, while 80% of these fixtures also featured 3 or more goals.
Best Predictions for Canada vs Peru
- Both teams to score (Yes) @ +100 with BetMGM
- Tie -1 (Handicap 3-way) @ +225 with BetMGM
- Over 2.5 goals @ -105 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Peru seem happy trading goals
Peru have been involved in plenty of high-scoring games recently. Both teams have scored in each of their last 5 matches. That run covers Mexico, the United States, Spain, Haiti and Honduras.
The reason is a leaky defence rather than any kind of considered plan. Peru have conceded 2.2 goals per game recently. They shipped 11 in those 5 games while scoring 7.
Canada should create chances at home, with David and Cyle Larin leading the line. The latter has scored 7 goals in 8 matches for his club side Southampton so far this term. We’re encouraged by Peru’s recent defensive record and their ability to score against the likes of Spain and the USA.
Backing both teams to score at a coinflip 50% probability looks like the value bet from our trio of Canada vs Peru predictions.
- Canada vs Peru Bet 1: Both teams to score (Yes) @ +100 with BetMGM
A narrow home win fits Canada’s form
Canada handled Chile comfortably enough last weekend. A single Jonathan David goal was enough at BMO Field. Marsch’s men are now ranked 30th in the world, while Peru sit 50th.
Narrow home wins have been the pattern for Marsch's team. Friendlies rarely turn into routs at this level. Peru are also on their third game in eight days.
Canada’s win over Chile came against 9 men for the final 40 minutes. The fact they were unable or unwilling to push hard for more goals says a lot here. Peru haven’t kept a clean sheet in 5 games, so they are vulnerable to a narrow defeat too. At a 30.8% implied probability, a one-goal Canada win could offer value.
- Canada vs Peru Bet 2: Tie -1 (Handicap 3-way) @ +225 with BetMGM
Peru’s games generally breach the Over 2.5 Goals line
Peru’s recent matches have produced plenty of goals. 4 of their last 5 games saw 3 or more goals land. Only Wednesday's 1-1 draw with Mexico stayed below the 2.5 Goals benchmark.
The defensive numbers explain the trend neatly. Peru concede 2.2 goals per game at present. The quick turnaround could make it harder for Peru to remain defensively solid.
Canada have also scored in 5 of their last 6 home friendlies. David is the captain and leading the line again. Peru also conceded four goals to the United States last weekend. At the current odds, the market implies a 51.3% probability of three or more goals, while Peru’s recent results support the Over 2.5 Goals line.
- Canada vs Peru Bet 3: Over 2.5 goals @ -105 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Canada 2-1 Peru
- Goalscorers prediction: Canada: David, Larin - Peru: Vélez
Canada play their second of 2 home international friendlies in the space of a week against Peru on Saturday afternoon. The Canucks won their first home friendly since the 2026 World Cup, beating 9-man Chile 1-0.
Jesse Marsch’s side face a Peruvian side that have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last 6 matches, losing their last 3. The Canadians won their last meeting against Peru 1-0 at the 2024 Copa America, with Peru ending the contest with 10 men.
Marsch is without 4 regular faces in his senior squad. Alfie Jones (calf), Ali Ahmed (knee), Derek Cornelius (hip) and Ismael Kone (ankle) are all sidelined currently.
Although Peru are winless in their last 3 matches, it’s fair to say their opposition has been anything but easy. They’ve lost 3-1 and 4-1 to Spain and the USA respectively, before a recent 1-1 draw with Mexico.
Prior to this trio of tough tests, Peru had landed a narrow 2-1 victory over Haiti and drawn 2-2 with Honduras. They visit Stade Saputo with 3 players missing from their usual squad. A knee injury rules out Christofer Gonzales, while Jose Rivera (muscle) and Kenji Cabrera (foot) are also absent.
Probable lineups for Canada vs Peru
Canada expected lineup: St. Clair, Johnston, Bombito, Miller, Laryea, Priso, Eustáquio, Koné, Shaffelburg, David, Larin
Peru expected lineup: Gallese, Sonne, Zambrano, Callens, López, Cartagena, Peña, Cabrera, Quispe, Vélez, Ramos