Our betting expert expects the home team to triumph following an even start, with Alejandro Grimaldo among the goalscorers.
Best bets for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
- First half - Draw at odds of @ +150 on BetMGM
- Alejandro Grimaldo to score anytime at odds of @ +450 on BetMGM
- Atletico Madrid to win at odds of @ -114 on BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Expect an even start at the Metropolitano
Recent matches involving these two teams have tended to produce more action in the second half. Each of the past four Premier League games involving Manchester United has been goalless at the interval. Five of their six outings in the English top flight this term have been level at half-time.
It’s a similar story for Atleti, who have been drawing at the break in five of their past six competitive fixtures. Across their last four matches, 77% of the goals have come in the second half.
In their first Champions League away game since 2023, United are unlikely to take major early risks. They may look to hit on the break with players like Marcus Rashford and Matheus Cunha.
That raises the possibility of another cautious first half involving these teams. Backing this game to be all square at the interval seems to offer value with an implied probability of 40%.
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Bet 1: First half - Draw at odds of @ +150 on BetMGM
Grimaldo to threaten from the left flank
It has been a challenging start to the season for Atletico Madrid’s strikers. Julian Alvarez is yet to score and has been jeered by his own supporters after his attempts to leave in the summer. Meanwhile, Alexander Sorloth has been dealing with an injury and has only clocked up 17 minutes of action.
As a result, Atleti have had to look elsewhere for goals. Alejandro Grimaldo has stepped up, scoring three times in his last four appearances. While that would be an extraordinary run for most full-backs, Grimaldo has long had an eye for goal. The 31-year-old netted 12 times across Bundesliga and Champions League football last season.
Grimaldo is averaging 1.9 shots per game in La Liga this term. He has been used as both a full-back and a wing-back but regularly pushes forward into advanced positions. Given his fine current form, the Spaniard seems to offer value as an anytime goalscorer bet.
- Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Bet 2: Alejandro Grimaldo to score anytime at odds of @ +450 on BetMGM
Red Devils to fall short in the Spanish capital
With summer signings such as Grimaldo and Lee Kang-in starting to settle, Atleti have found their feet in recent weeks. In their toughest league fixture to date against Real Madrid, Simeone’s men allowed just 0.30 xG (expected goals), creating 2.35 xG.
Los Rojiblancos can also draw confidence from reaching the semi-finals of last season’s Champions League. They boasted a 63% home win rate in the competition and averaged 2.75 goals per 90 minutes at the Estadio Metropolitano. That shows the scale of the challenge facing Manchester United in Madrid.
The Red Devils benefitted from a very favourable fixture on Matchday 1, but they’ve only won one other competitive game this term. Carrick’s side have picked up just two points from their opening three Premier League away trips. Given that, Atleti deserve to be favourites. They look well placed to claim another European home win at odds implying a 53% probability.
Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Bet 3: Atletico Madrid to win at odds of @ -144 on BetMGMOur analysis: Form of both teams
- Score Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Manchester UnitedGoalscorers Prediction: Atletico Madrid: Julian Alvarez, Alejandro Grimaldo - Manchester United: Matheus Cunha
Atletico Madrid take good form into this match following four straight victories in La Liga. That includes a 2-1 triumph over city rivals Real Madrid, while they beat Alaves by the same margin on Saturday.
Atleti already have work to do in Europe to secure a top-eight finish. They were beaten 2-1 by Liverpool on Matchday 1, while Man United eased to a 4-0 home win over Sabah.
Things have gone badly for Michael Carrick and his team since then. The Red Devils haven’t won any of their past five domestic fixtures. They were left frustrated as 10-man Tottenham grabbed a late point at Old Trafford in the Premier League at the weekend.
Probable lineups for Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Pubill, Romero, Hancko, Grimaldo, Llorente, Cardoso, Simeone, Lee, Baena, Alvarez
Manchester United expected lineup: Lammens, Dalot, Yoro, Martinez, Shaw, Tielemans, Baleba, Mbeumo, Fernandes, Rashford, Cunha