Argentina have won their last 5 meetings with Bolivia, keeping a clean sheet in their last 3 fixtures.
Best Predictions for Argentina vs Bolivia
- Argentina Moneyline and under 3.5 goals @ -120 with BetMGM
- Lautaro Martínez first goalscorer @ +275 with BetMGM
- Argentina win both halves @ -143 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Bolivia rarely threaten Argentina
Bolivia rarely trouble Argentina. They have scored just twice in the last 5 meetings between the sides. Two of those games finished with the Argentines romping to victory with clean sheets.
That provides the basis for this bet. You are backing Argentina to win without the game running to 4+ goals. Argentina won the last meeting 6-0 in Buenos Aires, but that was a World Cup qualifier. This week's meeting is a friendly contest.
Lionel Scaloni will rotate heavily and test new combinations. Bolivia should sit deep and try to keep the score down. The attention remains largely on Messi’s last game next week. That’s why backing a home win without a rout at a 54.60% implied probability looks like a sensible play.
- Argentina vs Bolivia Bet 1: Argentina Moneyline and under 3.5 goals @ -120 with BetMGM
Backing Lautaro to maintain his Inter form
Lautaro Martínez is in ruthless form leading the line for Inter. He has scored 4 goals in 4 Serie A games this season. Also, he has recorded a pair of braces against Napoli and Roma.
The shot volume is what makes Lautaro a credible option to open the scoring against Bolivia. Lautaro has already taken 22 shots in 323 minutes. He currently averages 6.13 shots per 90. That ranks him in the 98th percentile among forwards for attempts.
He also posted 4.72 xG across those 4 outings. Bolivia offer little resistance to that. They have conceded 2.2 goals per game across their last 5. We can back Argentina’s sharpest shooter to score first at an implied probability of just 26.7%. This looks like the top value bet from our trio of Argentina vs Bolivia predictions.
- Argentina vs Bolivia Bet 2: Lautaro Martínez first goalscorer @ +275 with BetMGM
Argentina to start fast in Córdoba and stay on top
Argentina have led at half-time in 8 of their last 10 meetings with Bolivia. The pattern is a fast start followed by control of the game. They won the last two meetings 6-0 and 3-0.
Bolivia are in a difficult spot right now and are vulnerable to the World Cup finalists. They have conceded 2.2 goals per game in their last 5. A 3-day turnaround after their game with Paraguay in Washington won’t help either.
There is an element of risk involved in this market. We need Argentina to win both halves separately, not just the match. Scaloni will likely empty his bench after the break.
Nevertheless, we expect Argentina to lead at the interval and have enough quality to unpick a porous Bolivian backline again in the second 45. At a 58.8% implied probability, this price looks fair given the circumstances.
- Argentina vs Bolivia Bet 3: Argentina win both halves @ -143 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Argentina 3-0 Bolivia
- Goalscorers prediction: Argentina: Martínez, Alvarez, Paz
Argentina play host to Bolivia at the Mario Alberto Kempes Stadium on Thursday. Córdoba is the venue of the Argentines’ first match without Lionel Messi.
After the bitter disappointment of their World Cup final loss to Spain after extra time, Argentina are in rebuild mode. Lionel Scaloni is due to use this international period to hand opportunities to some of his younger players.
Messi will feature one last time in an Argentina jersey against Benin next week, but he opted against facing the Bolivians.
Bolivia arrive in Córdoba in poor shape. They slumped to a 2-0 loss against Paraguay in Washington on Sunday. Óscar Villegas' side have conceded 2.2 goals per game across their last 5 matches. They’ve also failed to score in each of their last 3 games.
The Bolivians have only won 1 of their last 10 competitive meetings with Argentina. After a difficult game with Paraguay, Bolivia now face a short three-day turnaround and a lengthy flight south.
Probable lineups for Argentina vs Bolivia
Argentina expected lineup: E. Martínez, Giay, Romero, L. Martínez, Medina, Palacios, Mac Allister, Mastantuono, Paz, Álvarez, Lautaro Martínez
Bolivia expected lineup: Viscarra, Arroyo, Medina, Haquín, Morales, Cuéllar, Terceros, Nava, Villamil, Fernández, Melgar