After Argentina’s thrashing of Burkina Faso’s U23s, they’ll hope their clash with Benin has a more competitive edge with Lionel Messi bidding farewell.
Best Predictions for Argentina vs Benin
- Argentina 4-0 Benin (Correct Score) @ +375 with BetMGM
- Under 4.5 Goals @ +110 with BetMGM
- Second Half (Half With Most Goals) @ +100 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing Argentina to replicate last week’s score against Bolivia
Argentina produced a 4-0 scoreline just eight days ago. They beat Bolivia in Córdoba with goals spread across both halves. Lautaro Martínez and Nico Paz were among the scorers in the first, while Cristian Romero and Jose Lopez scored in the second.
The difference in quality is obvious again here. Benin are 114th in the world, and Argentina are 2026 World Cup runners-up. Lionel Scaloni's side have scored 11 goals without conceding once during this international window.
A ceremonial night may also keep the tempo civilised. Argentina will not be chasing a cricket score in a farewell. Nico Paz has three goal contributions in his last two games for Argentina. The market prices this scoreline at a 21% implied probability. We feel that it could be higher, since Benin will struggle to score and Messi, Alvarez and co. should have a field day.
- Argentina vs Benin Bet 1: Argentina 4-0 Benin (Correct Score) @ +375 with BetMGM
Benin are not Burkina Faso’s youngsters
Benin are a functioning senior side rather than a group of U23s that Argentina faced against Burkina Faso. They beat Mauritania 2-1 in their opening Africa Cup of Nations qualifier. That is a completely different situation compared to Argentina's last opponent.
Context matters with that 7-0 scoreline. Burkina Faso arrived in Buenos Aires hours before kick-off after flight chaos. They then fielded a squad of mostly players aged under 23, which resulted in an inflated result.
Expect Scaloni to empty his bench for the occasion too. Substitutions tend to break up the rhythm of a game. Benin conceded only once against Mauritania in that qualifier. The market feels there’s a 48% implied probability of less than 5 goals being scored. That feels too low when you consider the ceremonial nature of the game. In fact, it could be the top value play from our Argentina vs Benin predictions this week.
- Argentina vs Benin Bet 2: Under 4.5 Goals @ +110 with BetMGM
Backing Benin to tire after the break
Benin should come with a clear early plan. Sitting deep and frustrating Argentina is the obvious approach for them. However, holding that shape for 90 minutes is far harder.
Fatigue and substitutions should open the game after the break and Argentina have the depth to punish tired legs. Messi is also likely to be substituted at some point, giving him the final send-off he deserves.
Argentina did lead Burkina Faso 5-0 at half-time last week, but that was under very different circumstances against up-and-coming youngsters. On the other hand, the Bolivia win split two goals in each half.
Benin’s preparation for this game has been reportedly difficult, with uncomfortable flights and accommodation for the squad. A 50% chance of there being more goals late on than in the first period feels surprisingly low, and we feel it should be exploited.
- Argentina vs Benin Bet 3: Second Half (Half With Most Goals) @ +100 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Argentina 4-0 Benin
- Goalscorers prediction: Argentina: Messi x2, Alvarez, Paz
Argentina host Benin at the Estadio Monumental on Tuesday night in what is Lionel Messi’s final game for La Albiceleste. Although their opponents may not be headline-makers everyone expects, this game is here to focus on one player alone - Lionel Messi!
Messi will make his 208th and final appearance for Argentina, after announcing his international retirement back in August. Messi has played 28 times at this stadium, but this will be his most momentous one. We are expecting a massive crowd with the aim of celebrating Messi’s career and not focusing much on the competitive side of the game.
Beside Messi, Nicolás Otamendi is also set to make his last international appearance. He should come out of international retirement for one game only, to make this occasion even greater. Meanwhile, Juan Foyth and Thiago Almada have withdrawn through injury. Nicolás Tagliafico is doubtful and Rodrigo De Paul could make a return.
Argentina have been ruthless this window. They beat Bolivia 4-0 and then thrashed Burkina Faso’s U23s 7-0. Benin sits 114th in the world rankings, so they are a hardly an opponent for Argentina to fear.. Benin recently defeated Mauritania 2-1 in an Africa Cup of Nations qualifier.
Benin will be without right back Abdoul Rachid Moumini, who cannot travel for administrative reasons.
Probable lineups for Argentina vs Benin
Argentina expected lineup: Martinez; Giay, Otamendi, Romero, Medina; De Paul, Mac Allister, Lo Celso, Paz; Messi, Alvarez
Benin expected lineup: Djandjinou; Azongnitode, Roche, Tijani, Ourou; Hassane, D'Almeida; Aloko, Olaitan, Ourorou; Tosin