Our betting expert expects in-form Amahl Pellegrino to score for the hosts, but San Diego’s stunning debut MLS season to end.
San Diego FC vs Minnesota United Predictions
- Double Chance - Minnesota or Draw @ +130
- Minnesota to score over 1.5 goals @ +140
- Amahl Pellegrino to score anytime @ +190
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Best Predictions San Diego Fc vs Minnesota Utd
Home advantage to count for little
The play-offs are structured to give the best teams a more favourable path to the MLS Cup. San Diego are guaranteed home advantage in their Western Conference ties. However, it’s uncertain how much they stand to benefit from that.
During the regular season, they averaged only 1.53 points per home game. That was compared to 2.18 points per match on the road, with the recently-formed club thriving away.
Minnesota were in a similar situation, as they recorded an average of 1.76 points per away game, compared to only 1.65 points per home match. Those numbers suggest home advantage may be incorrectly priced into the betting markets for this play-off tie.
- San Diego FC vs Minnesota United Prediction Bet 1: Double Chance - Minnesota or Draw @ +130
The Loons to cause an upset
The only two previous meetings between the clubs also ended in away victories. Minnesota won 3-1 in San Diego as recently as September.
They averaged 1.59 goals per game on their travels during the regular season. That good form in front of goal has continued in the play-offs. The Loons rode their luck at times against Seattle, but they scored five times across the final two matches of that first-round tie.
Eric Ramsay’s side have only failed to score in two of their last 14 matches across all competitions. They typically set up with a 5-4-1 formation and operate quite directly. Despite that, Minnesota do commit bodies forward and are formidable from set-pieces.
San Diego have lost four of their last nine home games. They could be vulnerable again here, and there may be value in backing Minnesota to score over 1.5 goals.
- San Diego FC vs Minnesota United Prediction 2: Minnesota to score over 1.5 goals @ +140
Pellegrino on fire for San Diego
Pellegrino is a player that San Diego can certainly rely upon currently. He has been in exceptional form, having scored at least once in each of his last four appearances. The 35-year-old registered six goals and three assists across that period in total.
Having only moved to the club in August from San Jose, Pellegrino has made an instant impact. As a left winger, the Norwegian is getting into plenty of dangerous positions. So far, he has averaged three shots per game during the play-offs.
Minnesota seem capable of being competitive in this contest. However, they have some defensive flaws, as they’ve allowed at least 1.5 xG in each of their last four matches.
Based on current form, Pellegrino can exploit any gaps that the visiting defence leaves. He could be worth backing to score anytime with an implied probability of 36.4%.
- San Diego FC vs Minnesota United Prediction 3: Amahl Pellegrino to score anytime @ +190
Our analysis: San Diego FC vs Minnesota United
- Score prediction - San Diego 1-2 Minnesota
- Goalscorers prediction - San Diego: Amahl Pellegrino - Minnesota: Anthony Markanich, Kelvin Yeboah
This is a meeting of two of the best four teams during the regular season in the Western Conference. San Diego finished top to secure their status as first seeds, giving them home advantage in this tie.
Both teams emerged from the best-of-three first round of the play-offs prior to the international break. After two close games, San Diego won the final match of their series against Portland Timbers 4-0 at Snapdragon Stadium.
Meanwhile, Minnesota came through 7-6 on penalties, following a 3-3 home draw against Seattle Sounders. They also won the opening match of the series on penalties, before losing 4-2 at Lumen Field.
Probable lineups for San Diego FC vs Minnesota United
- San Diego expected lineup: Sisniega, Bombino, Duah, McVey, Pilcher, Tverskov, Valakari, Godoy, Pellegrino, Dreyer, Baird
- Minnesota expected lineup: St. Clair, Markanich, Duggan, Diaz, Boxall, Hlongwane, Pereyra, Triantis, Trapp, Lod, Yeboah