Premier League Relegation Odds: League regular at huge value in 2025/26

While it’s easy to back Sunderland and Burnley for the drop, the Bees and Wolves appear very unstable currently.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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The Black Cats to spend big upon their Premier League return

Sunderland are trying to get busy in the transfer market in their first year back in the Premier League. They’ve permanently signed Roma midfielder Enzo Le Fee and are close to securing Senegalese international midfielder Habib Diarra from Strasbourg.

Diarra would be a direct replacement for Jobe Bellingham, who left the Black Cats for Borussia Dortmund shortly after their playoff final win over Sheffield United.

Sunderland will need to add depth and experience in all areas of their squad. They were outplayed for extensive periods of their playoff semi-final and final. Their young squad demonstrated inexperience at times, and their French owners will need to invest a significant amount of money to give them a real chance of avoiding relegation.

Alternatively, they may follow Ipswich’s strategy and invest some of their Premier League earnings to build a squad strong enough to dominate the 2026/27 EFL Championship.

Although the betting markets give them a 76.92% probability of relegation, backing their downfall right now wouldn’t be wise, as there’s no immediate value on offer.

Burnley may still lack Premier League class

One of the main reasons why Burnley are rock-solid favourites for the drop is their transfer activity. In the main, the club has only closed deals for players they had obligations to purchase upon promotion. Bashir Humphreys, Marcus Edwards, Jaidon Anthony, and Zian Flemming have all joined permanently this summer.

Clarets boss, Scott Parker, has opted to sign experienced right-sided defender, Axel Tuanzebe, on a free transfer from Ipswich. Tuanzebe was one of the few Tractor Boys who seemed comfortable playing in the Premier League.

Burnley have relied heavily on goalkeeper James Trafford in the last few seasons. The England international has been the key player of this Burnley squad. However, he might be convinced to move to a new team, as Newcastle United is reportedly very interested in signing him.

Losing Trafford and replacing him with German U20 keeper Max Weiss could be a big risk.

Leeds to struggle despite their big-club status

Leeds United cruised to the EFL Championship title in fine style. Daniel Farke’s men are back in the Premier League after three seasons.

The Whites are still considered one of the biggest clubs in English football. Despite their current standing, they still need to improve their performance to avoid an instant return to the Championship.

They’ve signed only two new players so far, with Lukas Nmecha joining on a free transfer and centre half Jaka Bijol arriving from Udinese.

Farke knows that he needs players with serious Premier League experience in his ranks to avoid a relegation battle. Financially speaking, Leeds are more restricted than Sunderland and Burnley by PSR, so they will need to be creative using free transfers and finding value in the European market.

Wolves have lost two star players and finances remain tight

Wolverhampton Wanderers appeared certain to get into a relegation battle in the 2024/25 Premier League. They were in terrible form under Gary O’Neil, but his dismissal and the excellent decision to bring in Vitor Pereira saved them from embarrassment.

The issue for Wanderers fans is that they’ve lost their two best players since then. Matheus Cunha has joined Manchester United, and Rayan Ait-Nouri has agreed to sign for Manchester City.

Although Celta Vigo’s Fer Lopez has joined their squad, few headline signings are expected at Molineux this summer.

The club’s Chinese owners are trying hard to make the club financially stable, but are falling behind teams such as Crystal Palace, Fulham, Bournemouth, and Nottingham Forest. These are the teams that Wolves finished above in previous seasons.

At a probability of 23.10% for relegation, they could be vulnerable, especially after seeing top scorer Jorgen Strand Larsen return to his parent club, Celta Vigo, this summer.

Brentford look vulnerable ahead of an uncertain era

Brentford’s current relegation odds offers interesting value to punters. The betting markets currently indicate there’s only a 20% chance they will be relegated.

However, there are plenty of uncertainties surrounding Brentford this season. They’ve lost long-serving head coach Thomas Frank, who was the mastermind behind Brentford’s rise into the top flight. They’ve taken the continuity route by appointing set-piece coach and rookie manager, Keith Andrews, as Frank’s replacement.

The appointment has surprised many people in football, despite how impressive Andrews is as a communicator and a tactician.

It's understandable why there's concern for them. They have a new manager with no Premier League experience, and they'll likely lose key players like Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Christian Norgaard, and Mark Flekken, who has already left.