Premier League Relegation Odds: New value pick after Leeds’ strong start

Vítor Pereira has done an excellent job at Molineux, winning more games than he has lost, but his skills will be tested following a difficult summer.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

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Premier League relegation odds: Six clubs in danger

This season’s Premier League relegation scrap is shaping up to be much more interesting than in recent years. After two weekends, the newly-promoted sides have all already recorded a victory apiece. Meanwhile, the likes of Wolves, West Ham and Brentford have been vulnerable.

As it stands, Burnley are the only club given a probability of greater than 70% to drop down into the Championship. Five more teams fall into a range between 25% and 65%, which underlines how tight the fight for survival could become.

That’s partly a reflection of the positive strides made by play-off winners Sunderland in the transfer market, and also the expectation that Leeds will be competitive. Opening-weekend home victories for those clubs suggest it’d be foolish to write off the promoted teams this year.  

However, it’s difficult to overlook the number of key players that have departed other potential relegation candidates. Wolves have lost Matheus Cunha and Rayan Ait-Nouri, while Mohammed Kudus is no longer at West Ham. Meanwhile, Brentford have been hit by Bryan Mbeumo’s exit and are at risk of losing Yoane Wissa.

Wolves

Of the clubs that were in the Premier League last season, Wolves are viewed as the most likely candidate in the relegation market. Even with Cunha, who registered 15 goals and six assists in the league, they finished only two places above the relegation zone.

Tottenham, who finished 17th, are in no danger of going down, so it’s only natural that the spotlight should fall on the West Midlands club.

Wolves started the season with a 4-0 home defeat to Manchester City and 1-0 loss at Bournemouth. They did see off likely relegation rivals West Ham 3-2 in the EFL Cup in midweek. However, their match-winner Jorgen Strand Larsen may yet depart before the transfer window shuts.

Pereira’s side are yet to create a big chance in the Premier League, with xG tallies of just 0.56 and 0.47 in their opening two fixtures. That suggests creating chances could be just as much of a problem as converting them.

Wolves have once again looked to the Spanish market for new signings. Fer Lopez arrived in a £19m switch from Celta Vigo, while they’ve been pushing hard for Getafe midfielder Christantus Uche this week. Jhon Arias, Jackson Tchatchoua and David Moller Wolfe have also arrived.

Whether these new players can adapt to the Premier League quickly and make an instant impact remains to be seen. If Larsen exits following Cunha, it might be sensible to back Wolves to go down with an implied probability of under 50%.

Leeds

Leeds United’s survival prospects currently stand at 69.2%, higher than those of established top-flight clubs Wolves and West Ham.

History shows that an impressive Championship-winning campaign, as Leeds enjoyed, does not guarantee success in the Premier League. The two most recent second-tier champions, Leicester and Burnley, went down with just 25 and 24 points, respectively. Daniel Farke’s previous struggles at this level with Norwich are also hard to completely ignore.

The early signs suggest Leeds may be better equipped than those sides were, however. They had 21 attempts on their Premier League return, three times as many as opponents Everton. Although a controversial penalty secured the win, they can feel their superior attacking intent made them worthy victors.

A heavy defeat at the Emirates was a reality check last weekend, but they won’t be the only team outclassed by Arsenal this term.

Leeds should be able to brush that one off, and will be confident of at least starting the season well in front of their passionate fanbase. They have every chance of building on that this weekend against a Newcastle side facing major selection issues.

Punters may therefore want to wait for the Elland Road feel-good factor to be tested by a home defeat before considering Leeds in this market.