Following an ankle injury to Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix, backup Jarrett Stidham will face the New England Patriots (-5.5), who drafted him, in the AFC Championship Game. The Broncos’ formidable defense should keep this game under 42.5 points (-110) regardless.
Patriots vs Broncos Predictions - 3:00pm EST - 1/25
- Rhamondre Stevenson 80+ Combined Yards @ +126
- Under 42.5 Points @ -110
- Patriots -5.5 @ -104
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
- Score sports bonuses at sign up with the BetMGM promo code
- Or look into our experts NFL betting promos breakdown for the best NFL betting sites
- Play with the best sports betting apps in the US when betting on sports online
Patriots vs Broncos Odds
- Spread: Patriots -5.5 (-104)
- Moneyline: Patriots (-245), Broncos (+200)
- Total: O/U 42.5 (-110)
Patriots vs Broncos Picks
Stevenson Streaking Away - Rhamondre Stevenson 80+ Combined Yards (+126)
Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson has been more effective than rookie running back TreVeyon Henderson in the playoffs thus far, and he’s been getting more carries to show for it.
Even though Stevenson left last weekend’s 28-16 Divisional Playoff win over the Texans in the second quarter with an eye injury and didn’t return until five minutes into the third quarter, he outgained Henderson 70-25 on the ground.
Stevenson also received 16 carries compared to Henderson’s 12. Stevenson also caught four passes for 11 yards. With 81 yards from scrimmage, Henderson has now managed 80+ rushing and receiving yards in four games straight.
He’s also picked up at least 77 rushing + receiving yards in six consecutive games. Given that the Broncos allowed 183 rushing yards to the Bills in their last game, Stevenson’s outlook for this game is favorable.
- Patriots vs Broncos Prediction 1: Rhamondre Stevenson 80+ Combined Yards @ +126
Points at a Premium in AFC Championship Game - Under 42.5 Points (-110)
Denver’s offensive outlook is undoubtedly bleaker without QB Bo Nix, who threw three touchdown passes in the 33-30 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills last Saturday. Backup Jarrett Stidham hasn’t thrown a pass in a meaningful NFL game since the 2023 season.
Expect the Broncos to keep things slow and simple as Stidham, who has never started a playoff game, finds his footing. With their passing game limited with Stidham and receivers Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin doubtful to play, the Broncos may have to shift their attention to the run game.
However, the Patriots have one of the best run defenses in the league, and the Broncos managed just 70 rushing yards on 22 carries against a weak Bills run stop unit. On the other side of the ball, the Broncos should cause fits for Patriots QB Drake Maye.
The Broncos sack opposing QBs more than any other team, and Maye has turned the ball over five times combined in his first two career playoff games. Expect a low-scoring game at Mile High and bet on under 42.5 points (-110).
- Patriots vs Broncos Prediction 2: Under 42.5 Points @ -110
Patriots to Punish Stidham, Broncos - Patriots -5.5 (-104)
New England has allowed just 9.5 points per game in its two playoff games to this point. The Patriots also went an absurd 7-1 ATS on the road during the regular season. Mike Vrabel’s Patriots have a lot of momentum heading into this one, with 15 wins from their last 16 overall.
As good as the Broncos’ defense is, they still allowed Josh Allen and the Bills to score 30 points last weekend, even as Buffalo committed five turnovers. The Patriots have a huge quarterback advantage here, as Drake Maye could conceivably win the NFL’s MVP Award.
In their previous playoff wins against the Chargers and Texans, the Patriots were 3.5-point favorites in each game. They managed to cover the spread in both, as they defeated the Chargers by 13 and the Texans by 12.
Over the past three games, the Patriots have forced 2.7 turnovers per game, which leads the league during that time. Expect a long day for Broncos backup QB Jarrett Stidham. New England should win comfortably and advance to its first Super Bowl since 2019.
- Patriots vs Broncos Prediction 3: Patriots -5.5 @ -104
Patriots vs Broncos Start Time
- Start Time: 3:00pm EST
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High
- Address: 1701 Bryant St, Denver, CO 80204
- TV & Streaming: CBS, Paramount+, Fubo
One game away from their first Super Bowl appearance of the post-Tom Brady era, the New England Patriots head on the road to face a shorthanded Denver Broncos team. The Pats were the best road team in the NFL regular season, going 8-0.