Although Bayer Leverkusen and Benfica share the Europa League favorites tag, the early data suggests the market isn’t telling the full story.
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Bayer Leverkusen: Europa League’s standout value bet
Few sides have started the Europa League league phase as convincingly as Leverkusen. However, the betting markets believe they currently have the same implied probability as Benfica of lifting the trophy. That gap between performance and price is where the current value lies.
The Bundesliga outfit lead the way in the league phase for xG (10.96). They are the only team to achieve double-figure xG in their first three matches. They’ve also posted a league-high 72 shots, with almost half (33) on target.
In many ways, they should have scored even more goals than they already have. They’ve squandered 12 of their 17 big chances. That explains why their xG underperformance (-2.96) is the fourth-highest in the Europa League right now. This suggests there’s further room for improvement in Leverkusen’s results.
Defensively, they are equally sound. They’ve conceded the lowest xG in the league phase thus far (1.62). The German side have kept three shutouts and also faced the fewest shots overall, with only eight hitting their goal.
That control is founded upon their 60% average possession, along with their 90.4% pass success rate (1,705 accurate passes from 1,887). Leverkusen also have the fourth-highest touches in the opposition penalty area (116), which highlights their ability to turn possession into attacking opportunities.
There are, admittedly, some reasons to question Leverkusen’s knockout stage credentials. They lost consecutive Champions League last-16 ties to Arsenal and Bayern in 2025-26 and 2024-25, respectively.
Nevertheless, Europe’s second-tier club competition is a different proposition. Leverkusen cruised to the final of this tournament in 2023-24.
Benfica: Clinical finishing makes them serious Europa League contenders
Portuguese giants Benfica sit at the top of the Europa League outright winner market alongside Bayer Leverkusen. Their raw output explains why.
Although they lack Leverkusen’s underlying numbers, they have been clinical so far this term. Their ten league phase goals make them the highest-scoring team in the competition.
That efficiency is mirrored in their Liga Nos form domestically. Marco Silva’s men average 2.7 goals per game, which is the most in the Portuguese top flight. They also lead the way for average possession (63.3%) and sit second for xG (22.4), just behind Porto (22.8).
However, their Europa League numbers are not quite as convincing. Benfica have created only nine big chances so far and missed four of them. A low volume of high-quality chances could prove costly when they face tougher tests in the latter stages of the competition.
The club must also contend with the infamous Béla Guttmann curse. The legendary manager supposedly predicted in 1962 that Benfica wouldn’t win another European trophy for 100 years. The Portuguese side have since lost all eight of their continental finals. This includes back-to-back Europa League final losses in 2013 and 2014.
On a more positive note, Silva is familiar with many of Benfica’s main Europa League rivals. Silva faced Premier League sides Bournemouth, Sunderland and Crystal Palace during his spell in charge of Fulham.
His 229 games in charge at Craven Cottage could yet give Benfica a competitive edge in the knockout stages.
Bournemouth: Defensive strength makes them an interesting Europa League contender
Premier League clubs have dominated the Europa League in recent years. EPL sides have won back-to-back Europa League titles, with Aston Villa lifting the trophy in 2025-26 and Tottenham in 2024-25.
The Cherries are commencing their first-ever European campaign. They’ve also embarked on the Europa League under new management. Andoni Iraola left for Liverpool, with Marco Rose stepping into the breach.
The fact they are currently third favorites to lift the trophy is based largely on their finances. They have the most valuable roster in the competition, valued at approximately €745m. Crystal Palace are close behind, with a total roster value of €670m.
This roster depth could be particularly useful during a demanding fixture schedule, with Thursday night European commitments followed by domestic matches on the weekend.
They may not have Leverkusen’s attacking numbers, but Rose’s side have a robust defensive foundation. They have allowed just 1.85 xG, the second-lowest figure in the competition. It demonstrates that opponents are struggling to break them down. They’ve only faced six shots on target in three matches.
Their inexperience in the latter stages of European competition is undoubtedly the biggest risk.
AC Milan: European pedigree makes them an interesting long-shot bet
Milan are one of the more intriguing long shot selections in the Europa League outright winner market. The Rossoneri are enjoying a solid start to the Serie A season, as shown by a 3-1 derby win over Inter last week.
However, they already trail in the Serie A title race by a hefty seven points after more than a quarter of the season.
If the Scudetto slips away from their grasp once again, Ruben Amorim could soon pivot to the European front. They’ve shown flashes of their quality, especially in their recent win over Inter.
However, their underlying figures suggest they struggle to control matches against top-tier opposition at home and abroad. They are 24th in the league phase for big chances created and 17th in the Europa League’s xG table. Also, they average just 48% possession, which puts them 27th in the average possession stakes.
The comparison between Milan and Juventus is where the value lies. The Old Lady are priced much shorter than the Rossoneri. That’s despite deep-rooted structural issues and poorer form this term.
Amorim’s men appear to offer better value than the overpriced Juve. Ultimately, Milan’s European pedigree makes them an appealing long shot if their Scudetto hopes fade and they turn their focus to the Europa League.