In France, Lens have turned the title race into a genuine duel. In Italy, AC Milan have reminded their eternal rivals that leads can quickly vanish.
| Betting Markets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Lens to win Ligue 1 | +800 |
| AC Milan to win Serie A | +650 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Different scripts, same ending?
Ligue 1 was supposed to be predictable, especially as Paris Saint-Germain secured a historic treble last season. With vast resources and a star-studded squad, PSG were expected to cruise to another French league title. Instead, Lens have spoiled their plans.
Pierre Sage’s side sit second, one point behind the Parisians after 25 rounds. They have lost only three of their last 25 matches across all competitions, winning 19 in the process. Lens have been virtually unstoppable at Stade Bollaert-Delelis, with only two losses in 13 home games. PSG are yet to visit this term.
Lens have scored 26 and conceded just eight goals on home turf. With 33 points from a possible 39, they have two more than what PSG have managed on their own turf. The Blood and Gold have achieved this through defensive discipline and collective spirit.
They have the second-best defence with only 22 conceded, one more than PSG in 25 league games. Adrien Thomasson has orchestrated from midfield, with 10 goal contributions. The front line is rotated frequently, especially after Wesley Said’s injury. Yet, it continues to deliver.
PSG, meanwhile, are dealing with other priorities. Luis Enrique’s men face Chelsea in the Champions League Round of 16 this week after their Ligue 1 fixture against Nantes was postponed. That means Lens have a chance to reclaim the top spot when they face Lorient on 14 March, in between PSG’s two-legged European tie.
In Serie A, the story has been entirely different. Inter have been comfortable leaders for most of the season. At one stage, they carried a 10-point cushion into March and seemed almost invincible. However, Sunday changed everything for Cristian Chivu’s outfit, who entered the Milan derby unbeaten in 15 Serie A games.
AC Milan beat Inter 1-0 at the San Siro, completing their first league double over the Nerazzurri since 2010/11. The gap has now been reduced to seven points with 10 games remaining. Inter’s eight-match winning run in the league is over. They have won just two of their last six competitive fixtures.
The league fixture list tells an interesting story. Inter are yet to play Atalanta, Roma, Como, and Bologna. The Rossoneri’s run includes back-to-back trips to Lazio and Napoli after which they host Juventus and Atalanta at home. That leaves AC Milan facing three top-half sides in the final 10 games, a slightly kinder spread than their counterparts.
Milan have beaten Inter twice this season. Meanwhile, the Nerazzurri’s only win against Serie A’s top teams has come against Juventus.
Underdogs to clinch ultimate victory?
Despite an outstanding season, Lens are largely dismissed by the market as genuine Ligue 1 title contenders. The gap in odds between Lens and PSG is a reflection of history and financial power rather than their league form.
Back-to-back winless league games against Monaco and Strasbourg have temporarily set Lens back, allowing PSG to reclaim the top spot. However, the Parisians have not been convincing, and the league title is far from being decided. Their latest 3-1 loss to Monaco, just weeks after eliminating them from the Champions League, speaks volumes.
If you look at the ‘without PSG’ market, Lens are priced at 1.08. That is roughly similar to the odds for the reigning French champions to finish top. At current outright odds, the market sees Lens as far ahead of every other chaser, with Marseille trailing them by 10 points. Yet, it still gives them little chance of actually overtaking the leaders.
The decisive moment arrives on 11 April. Lens host PSG at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, boasting the league’s best home record. They are relentless at home, having dropped points in just two of 13 games. The atmosphere will be intense, as a victory in that game would see the gap disappear.
PSG are still navigating Champions League commitments. Lens have the opportunity to reclaim the top spot before the decisive head-to-head. That game will be played at their fortress.
Meanwhile, the Milan derby victory changed everything for the Rossoneri. Milan have beaten Inter twice this season. This goes to show that they can beat every team in the top division going forward.
Inter’s record in tight finishes is not very encouraging. Last season, they lost the title to Napoli on the final day. Simone Inzaghi’s team were thrashed 5-0 by PSG in the Champions League final. The mental scars are still fresh.
The fixture list adds more pressure. Inter face four top-ten opponents in their final 10 games of the campaign. Their record against the elite this season is mixed. Aside from their Derby d’Italia win over Juventus, they have struggled. Milan, meanwhile, have found their form after their recent loss to Parma. The 1-0 Milan derby win adds to their list of close victories this term.
Closing a seven-point gap in the final 10 games is entirely possible, provided other results also go their way. If Milan emerge victorious against Napoli and Inter slip against Roma or Como, the gap will shrink rapidly.
Two leagues, two chasers. The value lies in backing the teams that refuse to accept the script as it is.