Opposing them, as well as Angers, Le Havre and Nantes when they face the bigger teams is the way to go. The handicap market can be used to find value.
| Ligue 1 strugglers | Odds |
|---|---|
| Monaco -1 AH away to Angers | +105 |
| Toulouse -1 AH at home to Metz | +105 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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French strugglers in Ligue 1
The current bottom five in Ligue 1 have managed just five wins between them so far this season, and Auxerre are responsible for two of those. Metz have conceded 16 in seven games, while Angers have only managed to score three times. It’s tough times for the bottom dwellers in the French top flight.
If you combined all of Europe’s top five leagues, 96 teams in total, Metz would actually sit rock bottom with their two points earned. With a -11 goal difference already, any hopes of remaining in Ligue 1 are already dwindling. For those above them, it might be a case of being the best among the struggling sides.
The aforementioned clubs, as well as Le Havre, Nantes and - so far - Auxerre, are all worth opposing as things stand. Just 20 of the 96 teams in Europe’s Big Five have won fewer than two games so far - and four of them are listed above. Meanwhile, the likes of Paris Saint-Germain, Marseille and Lyon continue to excel at the other end of the table.
We’ve picked out a couple of games that offer value despite the poor form of clubs in the relegation zone. It’s where handicaps can come in handy.
Angers angst and Metz misery
Metz (15.4) and Angers (13.8) have two of the highest xGA in the top five leagues according to FBref. They both average around 2 xGA per 90 minutes. Meanwhile, only Nantes (5.3) have a lower xG than the duo, with Metz at 7.1 and Angers at 6.6.
For their upcoming fixtures, Monaco and Toulouse are likely to fancy their chances. Les Rouge et Blanc have had an inconsistent start to the season in terms of results, but they have scored plenty. Les Violets, meanwhile, got back to winning ways before the international break with an impressive win over Lyon.
Given the horrible defensive record of the bottom two, both Monaco and Toulouse are expected to score and secure wins. Marseille put three past Les Grenats in their last game, and Strasbourg thumped Les Noirs et Blancs 6-0 before the break. Carles Martínez Novell’s side also have home advantage against Metz, so that will add to their confidence.
Both sides have struggled offensively and conceded frequently, which leaves them quite vulnerable. Angers’ situation has worsened following the departure of Estéban Lepaul, their leading striker. He got nine goals last season and wasn’t replaced. They only scored 32 in total, a tally surpassed only by relegated Montpellier (23).
With defeats expected, the handicap market is the way to go. Backing both Monaco and Toulouse in this format looks like a sensible strategy for the weekend.