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Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills (7-3) face a tough test against the Houston Texans (5-5), who have the NFL’s best scoring defense, on Thursday Night Football. Given the Texans (+5.5) allow just 16.3 points per game, under 43.5 points (-110) is one pick to consider tonight.
Bills vs Texans Predictions - 8:15pm EST - 11/20
- Davis Mills Anytime TD Scorer @ +1200
- Texans +5.5 @ +100
- Under 43.5 Points @ -110
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.
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Bills vs Texans Odds
- Spread: Bills -5.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Bills (-290), Texans (+235)
- Total: 43.5 (O -102, U -118)
Bills vs Texans Picks
Money Mills - Davis Mills Anytime TD Scorer (+1200)
These odds are good for a guy who scored a rushing touchdown just a couple of weeks ago. So, it’s worth taking a punt on Texans QB Davis Mills, who is filling in for the concussed C.J. Stroud again, to get a second rushing touchdown of the season.
Bucs QB Baker Mayfield scrambled for a score against the Bills in Week 10, who have given up at least two rushing touchdowns for three straight games. While the Bills have a top-five sack percentage in the league, they’re not effective at stopping the run.
The 5.4 yards per rush attempt the Bills allow is the second-worst mark in the NFL. It’s conceivable that the Texans could call a QB sneak or have Mills scramble for a score in the red zone. So take the +2000 odds and run.
- Bills vs Texans Prediction 1: Davis Mills Anytime TD Scorer @ +1200
Bills Too Inconsistent to Back - Texans +5.5 (+100)
Eight of the Houston Texans’ ten games this season have come against opponents with a .500 record or better. That said, the Texans have only lost by six points or more on two occasions this season. Notably, both of those games were played on the road.
C.J. Stroud is not going to play in this one, but Texans backup quarterback Davis Mills has led them to back-to-back wins. While Houston has played a relatively tough schedule so far, that isn’t the case for the Buffalo Bills, who have already played five teams under .500.
The Bills have had some terrible road performances lately against mediocre teams, and facing one of the best defenses in the league could be a big challenge for them. Even if Mills has trouble against a strong Bills pass defense, the Texans’ defense should keep them in this one.
Take the points on the Texans tonight.
- Bills vs Texans Prediction 2: Texans +5.5 @ +100
Houston Halting Opponents - Under 43.5 Points (-110)
The Houston Texans may just be 5-5, but they have the number one scoring defense in the NFL. They’ve allowed just 16.3 points per game through ten games, and six of their last eight opponents have scored under 20 points against them.
Josh Allen’s six-touchdown heroics led the Bills to 44 points on Sunday, but the Bills’ offense has been a bit up-and-down, especially in road games. They put up just 13 points against the Dolphins and 14 points against the Falcons in Week 10 and 6 losses, respectively.
Neither of those teams has a top-half scoring defense. With Texans QB C.J. Stroud unable to clear concussion protocol, the Texans will have to start Davis Mills again, which limits their offensive upside. Take under 43.5 points (-118) for this Thursday Night Football game.
- Bills vs Texans Prediction 3: Under 43.5 Points @ -110
Bills vs Texans Start Time
- Start Time: 8:15pm EST
- Location: NRG Stadium
- Address: 1 NRG Pkwy, Houston, TX 77054
- Streaming: Amazon Prime Video
Davis Mills will start a third straight game at quarterback for the Houston Texans with C.J. Stroud in concussion protocol. Mills has led the Texans to back-to-back wins, but the Buffalo Bills are one of the best teams Houston will play this season.