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Are Forest a Value Bet in the Premier League Top Half Betting Market

Are Forest a Value Bet in the Premier League Top Half Betting Market?

Having lost Anthony Elanga to Newcastle, Forest have continued to invest in their squad. However, will Nuno’s uncertain future weigh heavily?

2025/26 Premier League Top Half Finish MarketOdds
Man United-450
Aston Villa-275
Brighton+100
Nottingham Forest+100
AFC Bournemouth+137
Crystal Palace+150
Everton+150
Fulham+175

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Forest continue to invest heavily in their squad

Nottingham Forest have had another hectic transfer window this summer. After qualifying for the Europa League, they were forced to sell one of their key players, Anthony Elanga, who is moving to Newcastle United.

However, aside from Danilo, Elanga has been the main departure from last season’s Forest squad that came very close to qualifying for the 2025/26 Champions League.

Nuno Espirito Santo has seen plenty more players added to the squad since Elanga’s exit. England U21 forwards Omari Hutchinson and James McAtee have joined from Ipswich and Manchester City. On top of that, forwards Dan Ndoye and Arnaud Kalimuendo have also been signed.

Forest spent over £100m on these four deals in total. That’s before factoring in the capture of Botafogo’s Brazilian key players, Igor Jesus and Jair Cunha.

From a defensive perspective, Forest’s recruitment department clearly valued height the most. The team’s defensive line height has spiked a combined 4.2m this summer. This makes Forest’s backline the joint-tallest in 2025/26, having been the shortest in 2024/25.

There’s no denying that Forest’s squad value has soared in the last couple of years, thanks to a hectic transfer period. It’s uncertain whether this fresh Forest side has the same spirit and mentality as the one that was in the Premier League’s top four most of the season.

Could Nuno’s uncertain position and European football hurt Forest?

This should be an exciting season for Forest, who are playing European football for the first time since March 1996. However, there is uncertainty around the long-term future of popular boss Nuno Espirito Santo. The Portuguese manager admitted in a recent press conference that his working relationship with the club’s owner, Evangelos Marinakis, had worsened. 

Some reports suggest this is mainly because the club hired a new global head of football, Edu Gaspar. The Brazilian and former Arsenal sporting director has reportedly blocked a recent signing that Espirito Santo was eager to make. This caused their relationship to become very strained.

Espirito Santo is highly liked by Forest supporters because of his style and how he manages players. If Marinakis fires Nuno in the coming weeks, the entire club and its recent progress may be put in serious jeopardy. Playing in Europe also adds another difficulty to playing in the Premier League.

It’s the toughest domestic league in the world. Many teams bigger than Forest have struggled to handle playing midweek European games and being ready for Premier League action on the weekends.

Although Forest have spent wisely in forward areas this summer, Forest may not be the safest team to back for a top 10 finish. There are too many variables that could go wrong for the Tricky Trees currently for them to be a safe even-money pick.

Fulham offer the best value for a top-half finish in 25/26. Marco Silva’s men finished just two points shy of tenth-placed Brentford last season. Moreover, they have made another solid start to this year with competitive draws against Brighton and Manchester United.

The Cottagers are expected to be active in the final days of the summer transfer window. However, they already have plenty of physical and athletic players. With Raul Jimenez fit again, the Mexican will offer strong competition in attack for Rodrigo Muniz.

The betting markets currently indicate Fulham have a 36% chance of finishing tenth or better this season. This seems very low considering how close they came to doing so last year and the potential for the team to improve.

They also have the benefit of being able to focus only on the Premier League because they are not in a European competition. This could be a very important factor.