How to bet on Fulham: Premier League's early surprise package

With their best start in two decades, Fulham's early exploits generate optimism and invite closer inspection to understand the factors driving their success.

Is it, then, wise to wager on their continued ascent?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

A Testament to Defensive Solidity

Fulham's resurgence has been firmly anchored in a robust defence.

Marco Silva's men have matched their joint-best defensive start to a Premier League season, conceding only five goals, the joint-second fewest in the league.

Central to this defensive fortification is the newfound partnership between Calvin Bassey and Joachim Andersen, who have seamlessly synergized to offer a bulwark against opposing forwards.

This defensive pair, aided by top-performing full-backs Antonee Robinson and Kenny Tete, has epitomised the hardiness and tactical discipline the Portuguese manager has instilled.

Bassey's man-marking prowess and Andersen's calmness in possession have been pivotal, evidenced by their combined clearances and blocks. As a unit, they have successfully restricted opponents to minimal touches within the penalty area, just behind Manchester City.

Their tenacity has translated into Fulham facing the fewest big chances alongside Tottenham, a testament to their airtight defence.

Tactical change pays dividends

The departure of midfielder Joao Palhinha posed a dilemma: either replicate his defensive contributions or usher in a stylistic transformation.

Silva chose the latter, effecting a prominent shift. Fulham, previously reliant on low-block defending, have elevated their defensive line, now positioned as the fourth-highest in the league. This adjustment facilitates turnovers higher up the pitch, accelerating transitions and enabling exploitative, swift counter-attacks.

Central to this new identity is Emile Smith Rowe. Previously limited to more creative roles, Smith Rowe's increasing defensive presence has underscored Fulham's aggressive high-press approach.

Partnering with players like Sasa Lukic and Andreas Pereira, Fulham's midfield now capitalises on pressing to reclaim possession in advanced areas, allowing attackers like Smith Rowe, Adama Traore, and Alex Iwobi to directly challenge defences.

Winning the ball high up the pitch allows Fulham to maintain possession in dangerous areas, and that's one of the reasons Silva's side rank eighth for corners taken (35, averaging 5.8 per game, with a slight increase compared to last season).

However, set pieces are one of the areas where Fulham need to improve, as they are the only side in the Premier League yet to score from a free-kick or corner.

It is still early, but Fulham’s points-per-match (PPM) is 1.83, significantly higher than in Marco Silva's two previous seasons in the Premier League (1.37 in 2022-23 and 1.24 last year) and above Roy Hodgson's team of 2008-2009, which ended with a PPM of 1.39.

That side finished the campaign in seventh position, representing Fulham’s highest Premier League finish. They qualified for the Europa League and, in May 2010, lost 2-1 in the final to Atletico Madrid after extra time.

An Attacking Line Reinvented

Fulham's attacking resurgence reflects their defensive transformation. Raul Jimenez and Adama Traore, once an impactful duo at Wolves, have rekindled their partnership in splendid form. Jimenez's notable finishing ability has emerged, benefiting greatly from Traore's service and speed. However, Fulham's attacking dynamism isn't confined to Traore.

Andreas Pereira's creativity places him among the league's top chance generators, with only Everton’s Dwight McNeil (21) having produced more chances than the former Manchester United midfielder (20). Rodrigo Muniz is yet to find the back of the net, but last season's Fulham's top goalscorer (10 in all competitions) has had more shots on target without a goal than any other Premier League player this season.

To Bet or Not To Bet on The Cottagers?

With their recent exit from the Carabao Cup and no European commitments, Fulham’s relatively light schedule contrasts with the upcoming difficult run against last season's top six, offering both an opportunity and a significant challenge.

A lighter fixture list has allowed Fulham to perfect their strategy, but upcoming encounters against Manchester City, Aston Villa, Arsenal, and Liverpool will serve as a litmus test for Silva’s adaptive tactics and squad depth.

Like Leicester City's 2016 triumph, Silva's cautious view of early-season success reflects Fulham's careful optimism. Humility remains their emblem as they progress with the aim of securing Premier League safety before entertaining aspirations of European contention.

Bookmakers might have misjudged Fulham’s strength in the recent past, and indeed, in the 2023/2024 season, bets placed at level stake on Silva’s men either winning or drawing each of their 38 matches would have resulted in a loss for punters.

Enthusiastic supporters might indulge in hopeful wagers, but seasoned bettors will await the outcome against Manchester City this weekend—a team against whom the Cottagers have lost the last 16 games—and the home match against Villa after the international break, to weigh Fulham's resolve.