The value market you need to consider when placing your bets on Euro 2024

Despite being just five days in, Euro 2024 has already seen a catalogue of excellent long-range goals scored already, with the likes of Arda Guler, Nicolae Stanciu and Christian Eriksen being just some of those to have scored from outside the box so far.

Teams Favouring Risky Shot Selections

At the time of writing, 34% of goals scored at the tournament so far have come from outside the box, with 11 of the first 34 goals scored in the first round of group stages games being long rangers.

This is a huge contract in comparison to Euro tournaments of the past, with only 13.4% of Euro 2020’s goals and 15.7% of Euro 2016’s goals coming from the same area.

It also proves to be a huge contrast when compared to last season’s Premier League campaign, a season that saw just 11.5% of goals coming from outside the area, the lowest total since 2010/11.

Teams seem to be a lot more willing to let fly from range than before, something that’s highlighted in the huge jump in goals scored from outside the box.

Euros Tactics a Welcome Break from Premier League

It’s not something we really see in the Premier League given teams’ reluctance to lose the ball by having a shot from range, however this clearly isn’t the mindset for a number of teams at Euro 2024, with 39% of the shots taken so far coming from outside the area.

Given this, ‘To Score From Outside the Penalty Area’ markets look to offer some pretty good value when betting on the rest of the Euros over the next few weeks.

For example, looking at Croatia vs Albania on Wednesday June 19th, the lowest odds for a player to score from outside the area is 15/2 (8.5), with this being the odds for both Luka Modric and Lovro Majer.

Odds courtesy of Sky Bet. Correct at time of publication and subject to change.

These odds imply that the bookies don’t feel very confident in either Modric or Majer’s chances of scoring from outside the box, with the chances of this happening for either player being a lowly 13%.

However given the numbers we’ve seen through the first 12 games, this would look slightly more likely that the bookies are making out.

8% of all shots from outside the box are resulting in a goal at Euro 2024 so far, with the average conversion rate of a shot from outside the box being 3.6% in the Premier League.

Researching which teams shoot the most from out the box is always worth it when placing these bets, as well as which players shoot from range more and their conversion rate from this distance.