Unai Emery’s side pulled off a huge surprise finish last year season as they ended up fourth, qualifying for the Champions League for the first time the 1982/83 season.
They were extremely consistent throughout last year, which was the main reason they managed a top four finish, however one crucial stat hints at them being unable to do so this time around.
Premier League Top 4 Finish Odds 2024/25
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
|
Team |
Odds |
|
Chelsea |
11/8 |
|
Newcastle |
7/4 |
|
Tottenham |
2/1 |
|
Man United |
2/1 |
|
Aston Villa |
3/1 |
History not on Villains’ Side
Non-big six Premier League teams have a habit of suffering the season after they qualify for Europe, with the added pressure and fixture congestion proving to be too much more often than not.
This is best showcased for Newcastle last year, who despite only playing six games in the CL, could only muster up a seventh place finish in the 2023/24 PL, with the Magpies missing out on Europe altogether after Man United’s FA Cup win.
This is also the case for a plethora of teams in the past, with all of West Ham (2022/23), Swansea (2013/14), Hull (2014/15), Leicester (2016/17) and Southampton (2017/18) all failing to quality for Europe via the league the season after qualifying for Europe.
All of the teams above ended up finishing at least two places lower than the previous year, with the likes of West Ham and Leicester dropping seven and 13 places respectively.
Competitors Catching a Break
Villa’s main competition for the last Champions League spot this season will be Newcastle, Chelsea, Man United and Spurs, all of whom aren’t in the CL next year.
Newcastle have no European football at all, whilst Spurs, Man United and Chelsea are in the Conference League and Europa League respectively.
Given this, those aforementioned sides will be facing easier opposition and therefore have more opportunity to rest players when playing these midweek Euro fixtures.
This, combined with the fact that all of Villa’s competitors for the CL next year have bigger squads than them and bigger budgets to spend on bolstering these squads, means Villa will be up against it before a ball’s been kicked in their attempts to make the Champions League again.