Manchester City have pulled off some remarkable comebacks to win Premier League titles this decade – but they now need a miracle if they are to do it again this season.
They dropped two more points at Newcastle on Saturday but more worrying than the 2-2 scoreline was the unconvincing nature of the performance.
The reigning champions fell alarmingly short of the level of brilliance they’ve produced over the past two years.
More pertinently, it's lower than the level of leaders Liverpool, who took full advantage of City's draw at St James' Park by battling past Brighton to pull 11 points clear at the top of the table.
Last season’s trip to Newcastle had been a turning point for City. They reacted to a lazy performance on Tyneside with a 14-game winning streak that propelled them to the title.
It’s difficult to see how the current side can emulate that run, although Pep Guardiola insisted the two performances at Newcastle were incomparable.
“We conceded two shots on target and concede two goals," the City boss argued. “The way we played was really good, we created chances against 10 players in the box and Martin Dubravka made good saves.
“At the end we shouldn’t concede the free kick and [Jonjo] Shelvey made the difference.”
The truth of the matter, though, is that Guardiola has big problems to address, and fast.
City have kept just one clean sheet in their last nine matches and have lost their ruthless edge, which used to kill off all hope for opponents.
Twice they took the lead against Newcastle and twice they quickly squandered it.
What’s more frustrating is that this could have been the moment when they gave Liverpool a taste of their own medicine.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have taken more points with goals in the last 10 minutes than any other team this season, much to the frustration of City.
When Kevin De Bruyne’s fierce 82nd-minute volley smacked down from the underside of the crossbar and over the line, it should have been enough to secure a vital victory.
However, Fernandinho gave away a clumsy free kick, City left Shelvey wide open on the edge of the area and the former Liverpool midfielder fired in a brilliant leveller.
“In the Premier League, you’ve never won it,” Guardiola admitted. “In that situation, they didn’t create much, so then we needed to be solid and not make a mistake and try to win the game.
“Shelvey put it in the corner, [but] we could have avoided it in that position.”
Newcastle are just the latest side to frustrate City with a well-disciplined, well-manned defence.
The champions had more than three quarters of possession and that has always led to a surfeit of chances but, in recent weeks, opportunities have been less frequent.
GettyGuardiola spent much of his time stalking his technical area, scratching his head rather than admonishing his players for a lack of effort, just as he had during that 2-1 defeat just over 10 months ago.
The Catalan is trying to be creative with a squad hit by injuries and shuffled his side to disturb the home team's rhythm.
Kyle Walker spent much of the first half as an auxiliary central midfielder but became more effective as an orthodox right-back in the second period.
De Bruyne and David Silva push forward as support strikers in support of Gabriel Jesus, while Benjamin Mendy and Riyad Mahrez were ordered to stay wide.
Ultimately, the changes weren't enough to secure the win that City so badly needed to keep their hopes of catching Liverpool firmly intact.
When asked afterwards about reeling in the Reds with another winning run, Guardiola responded, "It’s not a good idea to think about the Premier League or how many points. Just win games. If we don't win, it will be more difficult."
With trips to Burnley and Arsenal either side of the Manchester derby coming up, a similar streak to last season looks unlikely. City's title race may already be run.