Our betting expert expects West Ham to capitalise on playing in front of their home crowd at the London Stadium and edge out Leeds.
Best bets for West Ham vs Leeds
- BTTS - Yes @ -164on bet365
- West Ham Moneyline @ +135 on bet365
- Anytime goalscorer - Jarrod Bowen @ +187 on bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Clean sheets remain uncommon
West Ham’s front line haven’t had an issue scoring goals. In the league, they average 1.20 per game at the London Stadium, but their defence remains a significant problem. The Hammers conceded 28 goals in 15 such matches, with only Wolves (31) recording a worse defensive record.
Clean sheets aren’t a regular occurrence for the home side, as they’ve registered one in only 7% of all their home league matches this term. Those numbers will encourage Leeds, who have scored 15 goals in as many away league fixtures. The Whites have the fourth-worst away defence in the division, conceding 28 goals in 15 games.
Leeds have failed to find the net in their last two matches before this fixture. However, they will back themselves to score against a team that have kept only one clean sheet in their last five games. The hosts have seen 67% of their home games in the league produce goals at both ends, while the same statistic applies to 60% of Leeds’ away dates.
Additionally, the last four head-to-heads in a row saw both teams get onto the scoresheet, making this a highly probable outcome during Sunday’s match.
- West Ham vs Leeds Betting Prediction 1: BTTS - Yes @ -164on bet365
The hosts hold the advantage
The hosts are naturally favourites because they possess home advantage, and they should make it count. The Hammers are undefeated in their last four league matches at the London Stadium, an indication of a slight upturn in form. Their last five fixtures produced two victories and one tie, situated between two defeats.
The London club will also be highly motivated to secure a victory after losing to Leeds in their reverse fixture. Meanwhile, Leeds have won only one of their previous five matches, with their two most recent games ending 0-0. Farke’s players have struggled away from home, winning only one of their 15 Premier League away matches this season.
The Whites have failed to win any of their previous 12 away league fixtures, which suggests an away victory is unlikely. It is important to note that West Ham have won three of the previous four matches between the clubs played in London. These teams previously competed in the FA Cup during 2022, when the hosts secured a 2-0 victory. While the scoreline may be different this time, the result could be the same.
- West Ham vs Leeds Betting Prediction 2: 1x2 - West Ham Moneyline@ +135 on bet365
Bowen expected to perform strongly
Captain Jarrod Bowen is West Ham’s leading goalscorer in the Premier League this term. He’s registered eight goals in total across 31 appearances. Bowen’s played two FA Cup games this term, and he’s netted twice.
The captain has played against Leeds 13 times during his career, scoring five times. Bowen registered one goal and provided one assist during their most recent league meeting at the London Stadium. Furthermore, he scored in West Ham’s 2-0 FA Cup victory in 2022.
Consequently, he will pose a significant attacking threat against the visitors, making him our primary selection to score. Because Crysencio Summerville is doubtful to play due to an injury, much of West Ham’s attacking momentum will depend on Bowen.
- West Ham vs Leeds Betting Prediction 3: Anytime goalscorer - Jarrod Bowen @ +187 on bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Leeds
- Goalscorers prediction: West Ham: Jarrod Bowen, Valentine Castellanos; Leeds: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
West Ham will temporarily set aside their relegation concerns to focus on an FA Cup fixture that could take them into the semi-finals. The Hammers are only two points away from safety, a gap that they can overcome, but their immediate focus is this cup match. Nuno Espirito Santo could deliver a trophy for the London club this season, but that journey starts here.
They’ve achieved some surprising results in recent weeks, including holding on to a 1-1 tie with Premier League-chasing Manchester City. To reach this stage of the competition, West Ham had to defeat Brentford in a difficult match. Consequently, the players will be confident that they can secure a victory against Leeds.
Daniel Farke’s charges aren’t too far off in the fight for Premier League survival. Leeds are only four points ahead of West Ham in the league, and they could easily become deeply involved in the battle to maintain their top-tier status. However, the visitors will also be keen on reaching the semi-finals of the FA Cup.
They’ve not won a league game in their previous six attempts, but this competition has offered some respite. Leeds were clinical in their 3-0 victory over Norwich City in the previous round. Based on that performance, they will consider themselves as having an even chance of leaving Sunday’s match victorious.
Probable lineups for West Ham vs Leeds
West Ham expected lineup: Hermansen, Wan-Bissaka, Mavropanos, Disasi, Diouf, Soucek, Kante, Fernandes, Bowen, Pablo, Castellanos
Leeds expected lineup: Darlow, Rodon, Bijol, Struijk, Bogle, Ampadu, Stach, Justin, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin, Nmecha