Both Atlanta and Baltimore enter Week 5 tied at the top of their divisions. A win for either could see them take a commanding lead over their rivals in the NFL playoff race. With that being said, the Falcons are clear favorites with the betting sites. Let’s take a look at whether the bookmakers are right and dive into our picks.
Ravens vs Falcons Predictions, Picks & Odds - 8:20pm ET - 10/11/2026
- Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 @ -120 with BetMGM
- Bijan Robinson - Over 87.5 Rushing Yards @ -115 with BetMGM
- Under 43.5 Points @ -105 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Baltimore Ravens + 3.5
The Ravens have a better record through four games, but they’re the underdogs here. A big reason for this is Lamar Jackson. The two-time MVP suffered an ankle sprain last week, which caused him to miss the entire second half of Baltimore’s win over the Tennessee Titans.
Jackson then missed practice on Wednesday, causing the odds to swing massively in favor of Atlanta. However, most recent reports say that there’s a good chance that the Ravens quarterback will be ready to go by Sunday night. Getting Jackson back would obviously be a boon to Baltimore’s chances of winning, but even without him, the Ravens are good money to cover here.
Atlanta’s offense is incredibly one-dimensional — they are the only team with more rushing yards than passing yards this season and Michael Penix Jr. is still an unknown after coming back from his ACL injury. If the Falcons go down early, it may be difficult for them to climb back, given their limited offense.
- Ravens vs Falcons Pick 1: Baltimore Ravens + 3.5 @ -120 with BetMGM
Bijan Robinson - Over 87.5 Rushing Yards
While there are questions about Michael Penix Jr.’s consistency, no one doubts Bijan Robinson. The Falcons running back is currently ranks second in rushing yards (only behind the Ravens’ Derrick Henry) and no player has converted more rushing first downs for his team.
Robinson has been on a tear in recent weeks, with two touchdowns and over 140 yards in each of his last two games. He averaged seven yards a carry in those wins over the Packers and Saints.
Even if Atlanta go down early, we still expect them to give Robinson lots of carries — they don’t have many other options. If they take an early lead, Robinson will be the main man as they grind out a result. Either way, the Atlanta RB should have a big game.
- Ravens vs Falcons Pick 2: Bijan Robinson - Over 87.5 Rushing Yards @ -115 with BetMGM
Under 43.5 Points
The Falcons and Ravens have scored over 30 points in over half of their games this season, but Lamar Jackson’s injury concerns and the importance of the run game for both teams has us favoring the under here.
As we’ve touched on, Atlanta rely heavily on the run. Baltimore are a bit more two-dimensional with Jackson under center, but Derrick Henry is still a huge part of their offense. King Henry leads the NFL in rushing yards (537 yards) and leads the NFL in rushing touchdowns, with seven.
Atlanta have by far the NFL’s best rush defense, allowing just 193 yards across four games and only 2.7 yards per rushing attempt against them. Baltimore, meanwhile, have a top-10 rush defense and have committed the third-fewest penalties. To sum it up, neither team gives away yards easily.
- Ravens vs Falcons Pick 3: Under 43.5 Points @ -105 with BetMGM
Ravens vs Falcons at US Prediction Markets
US sports traders can buy options on the Week 5's marquee Sunday Night Football clash between the Baltimore Ravens and Atlanta Falcons across all of the best prediction market apps.
The injury to Lamar Jackson has massively swung the markets in favor of the Atlanta Falcons. From 27¢ underdogs a week ago, they're now 62¢ favorites across Novig, Kalshi, and Polymarket. Without the irreplaceable Jackson, the Ravens are now trading at around 39¢. However, this could swing if Jackson is declared fit to play.
The 50¢ mark for the U/O is surprisingly low at around 43.5 points. The Falcons are one of the best offenses in the league at the moment, and average 40 points per game with Michael Penix Jr. under center. With the Ravens still having weapons outside of Jackson, such as star running back Derrick Henry, this watermark seems low.
All prices correct at time of publication and subject to change.
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Ravens vs Falcons Start Time
The Ravens will take on the Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Sunday night (10/11) at 8:20pm ET. You can tune in to this battle of the birds on NBC, or stream the game via Peacock.
Ravens vs Falcons Game Details
- Start Time: 8:20pm
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
- Address: 1 AMB Dr NW, Atlanta, GA 30313, United States
- Streaming: Peacock, NBC Sports App, NBC.com, NFL+