Our betting expert expects this match to produce goals at each end, with Real Madrid’s extra individual quality making the difference.
Best Predictions for Real Madrid vs Villarreal
- Real Madrid to win & Both teams to score @ +120 with BetMGM
- Jude Bellingham to score anytime @ +163 with BetMGM
- Arda Guler 1+ assists @ +138 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Los Blancos to triumph without a clean sheet
Real Madrid have been concerned about Kylian Mbappe’s fitness since he picked up an injury while on France duty. However, initial fears of a lengthy lay-off have eased. The striker stands a good chance of featuring on Saturday. With seven goals in seven league outings so far. His likely return is a major boost for the hosts.
With 70% of their goals this term coming at the Bernabeu, Real Madrid ought to be confident. Their attacking strength should prove too much for Villarreal, who have gone 22 games across all competitions without a clean sheet.
However, there’s plenty of reason to believe the visitors will also grab at least one goal. Perez’s side rank third in La Liga with 16.5 xG (expected goals), while their xPTS (expected points) total is 13.4. That’s also the third-best record in the Spanish top flight.
All of the previous four Real Madrid games have seen both teams score. Backing the same outcome in a home win looks like good value at odds-against.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Bet 1: Real Madrid to win & Both teams to score @ +120 with BetMGM
Bellingham to fire at the Bernabeu
With doubts over whether Mbappe will be able to complete the full 90 minutes, Bellingham may need to step up. He is the only other Real Madrid player to have netted more than once in La Liga 2026/27.
Bellingham has continued his excellent form after scoring seven goals at the World Cup. He has scored three times in seven league outings, while he’s averaging 2.3 shots per game. The midfielder also chipped in with a goal and three assists in a brilliant performance for his country against Croatia last weekend.
Bellingham was rested for the second of his country’s four Nations League fixtures. He hasn’t had to travel as much as some players, which suggests fatigue shouldn’t be a major issue. Backing the Englishman to score anytime looks good with an implied probability of 38%.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Bet 2: Jude Bellingham to score anytime @ +163 with BetMGM
Guler’s creativity to make the difference
One of the other major positives for Real Madrid so far this term has been the form of Arda Guler. He is developing into one of the most creative players in Europe.
Even Lamine Yamal cannot match his average of 4.0 key passes per game, the highest figure in La Liga. Guler’s figures are all the more impressive given he has only averaged 50 minutes on the pitch per match. With better finishing from teammates, he’d have registered more than his current tally of two assists.
Having been suspended for Turkey’s last Nations League fixture, Guler has benefited from a full week to prepare for this game. He should get space to operate against a Villarreal defence that has conceded 1.71 goals per 90 minutes in the league. Backing the 21-year-old to register at least one assist appeals with an implied probability of 42%.
- Real Madrid vs Villarreal Bet 3: Arda Guler 1+ assists @ +138 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 3-1 Villarreal
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler - Villarreal: Ayoze Perez
A 2-1 defeat in the Madrid derby last time out leaves Jose Mourinho’s side behind in the title race. They trail a dominant Barcelona by six points, having also suffered defeat against Real Betis in September. Los Blancos have won all four matches at the Bernabeu this term, but there is still plenty of room for improvement.
Villarreal also changed managers this summer, with Inigo Perez replacing Marcelino. Perez failed to win any of his opening six competitive fixtures. However, the Yellow Submarine found their feet with successive victories over Malaga and Levante just before the international break.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Villarreal
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Dumfries, Konate, Rudiger, Cucurella, Silva, Tchouameni, Guler, Bellingham, Vinicius, Mbappe
Villarreal expected lineup: Gulacsi, Freeman, Navarro, Veiga, Romero, Saliba, Gueye, Akhomach, Moleiro, Pepe, Ayoze