Our betting expert expects a strong first-leg showing for the visitors, with Antoine Semenyo shining in his first-ever European match.
Best Predictions for Real Madrid vs Manchester City
- Manchester City - Moneyline @ +100 with bet365
- Antoine Semenyo to score anytime @ +125 with bet365
- Manchester City to score over 0.5 first-half goals @ -154 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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City take control of the tie with a first-leg win
This will be the 12th Champions League meeting between the clubs in the 2020s. They’ve been unable to avoid one another in the draws, and the rivalry has seen its highs and lows. Real Madrid comfortably knocked Man City out in the play-off round last season, but they are clear underdogs for this tie.
That’s due to a combination of factors, including injuries. Los Blancos are without key men Kylian Mbappe, Jude Bellingham and Eder Militao. By contrast, City are close to full strength, with even a heavily rotated lineup impressing at the weekend.
Arbeloa has made little impact since replacing Alonso in January. Real Madrid have struggled offensively, scoring only six times in their last five matches. They created only 1.11 xG in their most recent Champions League home game, compared to Benfica’s 1.64.
If City play at their best, they could beat a depleted home team. The visitors offer value, with an implied win probability of 50%.
- Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction 1: Manchester City - Moneyline @ +100 with bet365
Semenyo to shine on European debut
This will be a special night for Semenyo, who has never previously played on the European stage. He has been an instant hit at the Etihad Stadium, scoring seven times in 13 appearances for his new club. Also, he has only failed to find the net in four of his 11 starts.
With his pace and ball-carrying ability, he could pose big problems for Real Madrid on the break. His smooth adjustment since moving from Bournemouth in January suggests he won’t be daunted by the big stage.
Semenyo has struck 15 goals in the Premier League this season. Teammate Erling Haaland and Brentford’s Igor Thiago are the only players who can surpass that.
However, Haaland’s form has dipped. The Norwegian has netted just four times in his last 16 appearances in all competitions. That suggests Semenyo is the smarter anytime goalscorer bet at longer odds.
- Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction 2: Antoine Semenyo to score anytime @ +125 with bet365
Visitors to strike before the break
Real Madrid have not been convincing in the first half of their games under Arbeloa. This is reinforced by last week’s results.
Last Monday, they suffered a shock 1-0 home defeat against Getafe as a result of a 39th-minute goal. Los Blancos also struggled before the break in Vigo on Friday. They created no big chances and allowed 0.89 xG in the first half of that game.
In the Champions League, Real Madrid have also been better after the break. Their first-half goal difference is just +3. That’s compared to +8 after the interval.
By contrast, Man City tend to start well in Europe. 67% of their league-phase goals came before the break. They’ve scored at least one first-half goal in five of their last seven Champions League fixtures.
Pep Guardiola’s team netted twice in the opening 45 minutes in Madrid in December. They are good value to score over 0.5 first-half goals in this game, with an implied probability of 60.6%.
- Real Madrid vs Manchester City Prediction 3: Manchester City to score over 0.5 first-half goals @ -154 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 1-2 Man City
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior - Manchester City: Antoine Semenyo, Rayan Cherki
These clubs are familiar opponents, with their most recent meeting ending in a 2-1 win for Man City in December. Real Madrid have since changed their coach, as Alvaro Arbeloa has replaced Xabi Alonso.
It’s now Arbeloa who is under pressure heading into a tie that could shape his future beyond this season. Real Madrid have lost two of their last three league games. They saw off Benfica 3-1 on aggregate in the play-off round to reach this stage.
Man City qualified directly for the round-of-16 after finishing eighth in the league phase. They take good form into the match, with a rotated side winning 3-1 at Newcastle on Saturday in the FA Cup.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Mendy, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Vinicius, Gonzalo
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Nunes, Dias, Guehi, Ait-Nouri, Rodri, Silva, O’Reilly, Cherki, Semenyo, Haaland