Our betting expert expects a tight game between two neighbouring sides, with in-form Vinicius Junior firing Los Blancos to three points.
Best predictions for Real Madrid vs Getafe
- Real Madrid to win & BTTS - No @ -120 with bet365
- Under 2.5 goals @ +100 with bet365
- Vinicius Junior to score anytime @ +137 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Getafe expected to struggle at the Bernabeu
There are few surprises with Getafe, who play a conservative style under Pepe Bordalas. This has been their approach for almost a decade, and this season is no exception.
After 25 matches, Getafe are the second lowest scorers in the Spanish top flight. They have scored 20 goals from an xG of 18.7, which means they are outperforming that total. No team in the Spanish top flight has created fewer xG this season.
They have already lost all three matches against top five clubs away from home without scoring. Getafe have also been beaten to nil in each of their last four games against Real Madrid.
These trends suggest a comfortable night for the home defence at the Bernabeu. Real Madrid look good to win this game without conceding with an implied probability of 52.6%.
- Real Madrid vs Getafe Prediction 1: Real Madrid to win & BTTS - No @ -120 with bet365
Visitors to focus on defensive solidity
Getafe’s ambitions are at least boosted by the news that Kylian Mbappe is currently injured. He was a late withdrawal from the matchday squad against Benfica on Wednesday and is not expected to play any part here.
Given Mbappe has scored 43% of his team’s league goals this term, Real Madrid will need other players to step up. Real Madrid may need to be patient in a fixture that is traditionally low-scoring.
Ten of the last 11 meetings between these clubs ended with two or fewer goals. This includes a 1-0 Real Madrid win earlier this season, featuring a late 80th-minute goal. That goal only arrived after Getafe had been reduced to 10 men earlier in the match.
The hosts have only scored more than twice in two games since Alvaro Arbeloa took charge. Given this record and the history of the fixture, backing under 2.5 goals is the smart bet.
- Real Madrid vs Getafe Prediction 2: Under 2.5 goals @ +100 with bet365
Vinicius to extend scoring streak
With Mbappe sidelined, Vinicius Junior is set to lead the attack. He had a difficult start to the season and a strained relationship with Xabi Alonso. However, the Brazilian star seems to have bounced back in form.
Vinicius heads into this match having netted six times in his last five appearances. He has also scored at least once in each of his last four games at the Bernabeu.
The 25-year-old registered three shots against Benfica in midweek, having had five against Osasuna. He was clearly more confident, and should also assume penalty duties here given Mbappe’s injury. That could be significant given Los Blancos have already won 17 penalties this term.
Overall, Vinicius offers good value as an anytime goalscorer with an implied probability of 50%.
- Real Madrid vs GetafePrediction 3: Vinicius Junior to score anytime @ +137 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Real Madrid 2-0 Getafe
- Goalscorers prediction - Real Madrid: Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia
Real Madrid were unconvincing in midweek, but a 2-1 win over Benfica secured their Champions League progress. They previously enjoyed a great league run, winning eight straight matches over a two-month period. However, their momentum stopped with a 2-1 defeat away to Osasuna in their previous La Liga outing.
Avoiding relegation remains Getafe’s primary objective. They secured crucial back-to-back wins over Alaves and Villarreal in February to reach mid-table. However, a 1-0 home loss against fellow strugglers Sevilla was a major recent setback.
Probable lineups for Real Madrid vs Getafe
Real Madrid expected lineup: Courtois, Carreras, Alaba, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Valverde, Guler, Vinicius, Gonzalo
Getafe expected lineup: Soria, Iglesias, Romero, Abqar, Duarte, Femenia, Arambarri, Martin, Milla, Vazquez, Satriano