City have lost just once at the Etihad this season. They are also on a nine-game unbeaten streak. Can they reel the Gunners in further on Sunday?
Best predictions for Manchester City vs Arsenal
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Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Man City 2-0 Arsenal
- Goalscorers prediction - Man City: Haaland, Semenyo - Arsenal: N/A
The fate of the 2025/26 Premier League title rests on the outcome of Sunday’s clash between Manchester City and Arsenal.
This is a must-win for City. A win for Pep Guardiola’s men here would move them to within three points of Arsenal, with a game in-hand and a comparable goal difference. City are the clear favourites, having averaged 2.40 points per game at the Etihad this season.
City have averaged 2.40 goals scored per game and conceded just 0.73 goals per game in front of their own fans. Their 3-0 win at Chelsea heaped the pressure on Arsenal last week. The Gunners cracked with a 2-1 home loss to Bournemouth. Despite City’s multiple defensive injuries, they have maintained a nine-game unbeaten streak in the league.
Despite City closing in, Arsenal have been in good form recently. Prior to the Gunners’ loss to Bournemouth, they’d won their last four successive league games. They also kept clean sheets in three of those victories.
The big issue for Mikel Arteta this weekend is player availability. There are several question marks over his starting line-up this weekend. Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Martin Ødegaard are all carrying muscle issues, while Riccardo Calafiori is a doubt with a knock. All four are set for late fitness tests.
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Arsenal
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Ait-Nouri, Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, Rodri, Silva, Cherki, Doku, Semenyo, Haaland
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, White, Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel, Saliba, Zubimendi, Rice, Dowman, Martinelli, Havertz, Gyokeres
City to open the title race
Arsenal’s recent record at the Etihad in the Premier League is not brilliant. They’ve won one of their last ten visits to City, scoring only two goals in their last four trips. Combined with City’s dominant home form this season, that strengthens the case for backing a home win.
It’s such a tricky position for Arsenal to be in. Do they play it safe, or go for it? A draw is more than acceptable for the Gunners, but it’s hard to keep City quiet on home soil.
Arsenal’s midweek Champions League exploits must also be factored in. The Gunners battled to a goalless draw against Sporting to reach the semi-finals of the UCL. With tired legs and multiple fitness concerns, Pep Guardiola will be confident of getting at them from the start.
Betting on fewer than three goals to be scored
Five of the last seven competitive meetings between City and Arsenal have featured two or fewer goals. However, the betting market believes there is only a 53.48% chance of this happening on Sunday. This seems like the value bet from our trio of Manchester City vs Arsenal predictions.
There is so much riding on this game. Both teams could be expected to play it safe, especially in the opening exchanges. Arsenal will be eager to frustrate City for as long as possible. A draw is still a great result for the Gunners.
The only risk to an Under 2.5 Goals selection this weekend is an early City goal. In that case, a tired, injury-hit Arsenal could fold like a pack of cards. However, their goalless draw against Sporting on Wednesday demonstrated that the Gunners have plenty of backbone despite their injury list.
Backing Semenyo to make his mark
There is value in the betting markets on Antoine Semenyo to make a big impression this weekend. The former Bournemouth forward has racked up six goal contributions in ten Premier League appearances since joining City.
This means he’s scored or assisted in 60% of his appearances under Pep Guardiola. Yet, the betting markets believe he only has a 51.28% chance of scoring or assisting on Sunday. Semenyo managed both in City’s rampant 4-0 win over Liverpool in their FA Cup quarter-final.
Semenyo was also hugely influential in City’s 3-0 win at Chelsea last week. The Ghanaian international is clearly entering the season’s home straight in a confident mood. There’s value in backing him again this weekend.
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Man City 2-0 Arsenal
- Goalscorers prediction - Man City: Haaland, Semenyo - Arsenal: N/A
The fate of the 2025/26 Premier League title rests on the outcome of Sunday’s clash between Manchester City and Arsenal.
This is a must-win for City. A win for Pep Guardiola’s men here would move them to within three points of Arsenal, with a game in-hand and a comparable goal difference. City are the clear favourites, having averaged 2.40 points per game at the Etihad this season.
City have averaged 2.40 goals scored per game and conceded just 0.73 goals per game in front of their own fans. Their 3-0 win at Chelsea heaped the pressure on Arsenal last week. The Gunners cracked with a 2-1 home loss to Bournemouth. Despite City’s multiple defensive injuries, they have maintained a nine-game unbeaten streak in the league.
Despite City closing in, Arsenal have been in good form recently. Prior to the Gunners’ loss to Bournemouth, they’d won their last four successive league games. They also kept clean sheets in three of those victories.
The big issue for Mikel Arteta this weekend is player availability. There are several question marks over his starting line-up this weekend. Bukayo Saka, Jurrien Timber and Martin Ødegaard are all carrying muscle issues, while Riccardo Calafiori is a doubt with a knock. All four are set for late fitness tests.
Probable lineups for Manchester City vs Arsenal
Manchester City expected lineup: Donnarumma, Ait-Nouri, Nunes, Khusanov, Guehi, Rodri, Silva, Cherki, Doku, Semenyo, Haaland
Arsenal expected lineup: Raya, White, Lewis-Skelly, Gabriel, Saliba, Zubimendi, Rice, Dowman, Martinelli, Havertz, Gyokeres