Four points and four goals in their opening five Serie A matches saw Parma part ways with Carlos Cuesta. Will Gilardino have an immediate impact?
Best Predictions for Inter Milan vs Parma
- Inter to win to nil @ -111 with BetMGM
- Parma +3 (Handicap 3-way) @ -143 with BetMGM
- Under 1.5 goals (1st half) @ -118 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Inter to win with a rare shutout
Inter have conceded more goals than half of the rest of Serie A. However, we don’t think that defensive weakness will continue here. Parma have averaged just 0.8 goals scored per 90, culminating in Cuesta’s departure.
The implied probability of a home win is as high as 87% with the bookies, so there’s little value in backing Inter outright. We need to add another leg to boost the odds to a better price and the best solution is to look at a clean sheet for Inter.
Parma are currently bottom of Serie A’s xG (expected goals) table with 3.4 from five matches. They are also 20th in the shots on target per 90 table, averaging just 2.8. The underlying metrics suggest backing Inter to win with a clean sheet at a little under evens makes the most sense.
- Inter Milan vs Parma Bet 1: Inter to win to nil @ -111 with BetMGM
Gilardino’s men to avoid a heavy defeat
If Inter win, it likely won’t be a heavy one. Parma have only lost by a three-goal margin or more in one of their last nine Serie A visits to Inter. That’s a run which dates back to January 2012.
Parma have struggled in front of goal, but they have been solid defensively. They are 13th in Serie A’s xGA (expected goals against) table, which is two places above their actual league position.
Although Inter are expected to win, we’re backing a slight new manager bounce here. We can back Parma to lose by no more than a two-goal margin at around 59% implied probability. This feels like the top value bet from our Inter Milan vs Parma predictions. It’s even more appealing given that this bet has landed in eight of the last nine meetings between these sides in Milan.
- Inter Milan vs Parma Bet 2: Parma +3 (Handicap 3-way) @ -143 with BetMGM
A quiet first half
There is a clear trend when looking at the 12 Serie A goals Inter have scored at the San Siro this season. Only three of them came in the first halves of their three matches.
Parma have only scored one goal on their travels in 2026/27. This was a late consolation goal from David Romero in the 2-1 defeat at Como. Meanwhile, three of Parma’s four away goals conceded also occurred after the interval.
There’s also a busy three-week international window to factor in here. Several Inter players may lack match sharpness this weekend. We can back under 1.5 first-half goals at an implied probability of 54% with the bookies.
- Inter Milan vs Parma Bet 3: Under 1.5 goals (1st half) @ -118 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Inter Milan 2-0 Parma
- Goalscorers prediction: Inter Milan: Thuram, Çalhanoğlu
Round six of the 2026/27 Serie A campaign returns this weekend as the defending champions host 15th-placed Parma at San Siro.
Inter have made a solid start to the season and remain unbeaten in Serie A. They are one of three teams yet to lose, with four wins and one draw from five matches. However, their defensive record is a concern. They have conceded eight goals, five more than fellow contenders Roma and Lazio. They’ve made up for it in attack with a league-high 15 goals in five matches.
Cristian Chivu looks set to be without John Stones (thigh) for the visit of Parma. A late decision will be made on Lautaro Martinez’s availability. The Argentine striker played almost 80 minutes in Lionel Messi’s farewell appearance against Benin. He will return to the Inter camp late and be monitored.
Parma will be without Dominik Drobnic (arm) and Hans Nicolussi Caviglia (hernia) for the trip to Milan. Alberto Gilardino has been working hard on the training ground and using the international window as an opportunity to get his ideas across to his new side.
Despite only scoring four goals in five games, Parma have also only conceded seven goals. That’s the best defensive record in the bottom half of the table.
Probable lineups for Inter Milan vs Parma
Inter Milan expected lineup: J. Martinez, Bastoni, Akanji, Bisseck, Dimarco, Diouf, Zieliński, Çalhanoğlu, Barella, Thuram, L. Martinez
Parma expected lineup: Corvi, Delprato, Troilo, Carlos, Valeri, Britschgi, Bernabé, Keita, Touré, Lontani, Romero