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Dortmund are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Gladbach. With the hosts winning just four home games all season, will BVB romp to victory?
Best pred for Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
- Borussia Dortmund - Moneyline @ -103 with bet365
- Serhou Guirassy Anytime Goalscorer @ -175 with bet365
- 2nd Half (Half With Most Goals) @+100 with bet365
All odds are courtesy of bet365, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Backing BVB to clinch all three points
Dortmund are unbeaten in their last six meetings with Gladbach across all competitions. They’ve also led at half time in five of their last six matchups. Additionally, they have won six of their last nine visits to Borussia-Park.
Gladbach concede 1.60 goals per home game, which is above the league average (1.44). Meanwhile, Dortmund concede just 1.13 goals per away game, well below the league average (1.75). Dortmund have also scored first in 80% of their away matches and have a 2.33 points per game average when they do so.
With 53% of their away games won so far this season, we can back BVB to win on Sunday at a probability of 52.63%. With Gladbach toiling and Dortmund back to winning ways last week, we’re confident in backing BVB to clinch all three points. Gladbach only really need a point to avoid relegation, so they are likely to sit back.
- Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 1: Borussia Dortmund - Moneyline @ -103 with bet365
Guirassy to come to Dortmund’s aid
Serhou Guirassy has endured a disjointed season, but the Guinean appears to be hitting form at just the right time. The 30-year-old has scored four goals in his last seven matches, at a strike rate of 57.14%.
Guirassy’s strike rate for the full season is 50%, with 15 goals in 30 Bundesliga appearances. We can back him to score any time this weekend at a 50% probability, which is in line with his seasonal average.
Given that he’s currently outperforming his seasonal average, it seems like there is an extra 5% of value on this bet this weekend.
Value on more goals in the second half
So far this season, seven of Gladbach’s 15 home games have been level at the interval. Only 27% of Dortmund’s away matches have featured two or more first-half goals. Games involving both teams typically have three or more goals this season, but we anticipate only one goal before half time.
Although Dortmund have scored in the opening 45 in 67% of their games, they’ve also scored after the break in 73% of matches. In fact, the average number of goals scored in the first half by Gladbach and Dortmund is 1.40, versus 1.74 in the second half.
Dortmund have also conceded just 0.33 goals in the first half of games away this season. We can back the second half to feature more goals than the first at a coinflip probability (50%). This is the best value bet from our trio of Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund predictions.
- Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction 3: 2nd Half (Half with most goals) @+100 with bet365
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction - Gladbach 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
- Goalscorers prediction - Gladbach: Tabakovic - Borussia Dortmund: Guirassy, Brandt
Gladbach return to home soil on Sunday looking for a big three points against Dortmund that would rule out any last-minute relegation fears.
Their Bundesliga form has been very poor to date in 2026. Since the beginning of the year, Gladbach have won only three of their 16 Bundesliga matches. All three of those victories came at home. They average 1.20 points per game in front of their own fans and just 0.88 points per away game.
Gladbach have 12 points less than at the same stage last season. Following a resurgence between Game Weeks eight and 16, top-half finish ambitions were high. However, Eugen Polanski’s men have struggled for consistency in recent months. They can’t point to a lengthy injury list either, with only N’Goumou and Kleindienst missing at present. However, Jens Castrop will miss this clash due to suspension.
Dortmund bounced back impressively following back-to-back losses earlier in the month. Their 4-0 victory over Europa League hopefuls Freiburg has maintained their five-point advantage over third-placed RB Leipzig.
Niko Kovac’s BVB have been very consistent over the second half of the season. They’ve maintained second place in the Bundesliga since Game Week 15. Two of their three league defeats in 2026 came against defending champions Bayern and recent champions Leverkusen. Dortmund are currently 19 points better off than at this stage last season, having lost seven fewer games than the BVB side of 2024/25.
Probable lineups for Gladbach vs Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Monchengladbach expected lineup: Nicolas, Chiarodia, Elvedi, Sander, Ullrich, Scally, Reitz, Stoger, Engelhardt, Tabakovic, Honorat
Borussia Dortmund expected lineup: Kobel, Anton, Bensebaini, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson, Svensson, Bellingham, Sabitzer, Beier, Brandt, Guirassy