These two teams enter NFL Week 9 with identical 6-1 records, but the betting sites favor Josh Allen’s team here, after the Bills dominated Baltimore 36-10 in Week 8. The Vikings, meanwhile, suffered their first loss of the season in a 19-15 defeat to the Lions in Week 8.
Bills vs Vikings Predictions, Picks & Odds - 8:15pm ET - 11/9/2026
- Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ +110 withBetMGM
- Under 44.5 Points @ -110 with BetMGM
- Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Over 29.5 @ -115 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Buffalo Bills -3.5
Their undefeated record wasn’t the only thing the Vikings lost in Week 8. Minnesota also suffered the loss of their quarterback, Kyler Murray, who is set to miss Monday’s game with a hamstring injury. Carson Wentz will start in his place.
Buffalo, on the other hand, will have MVP-favourite Josh Allen under center. The four-time Pro Bowler is one of the NFL’s most versatile threats and has the Bills’ offense firing on all cylinders. Allen’s team lead the NFL in scoring with 33.3 points per game. They rank second for yards per game (393.1) and also lead the league in points per drive (3.07).
Minnesota have done well to be where they are after eight weeks, but they’ve also yet to face an offense like Buffalo’s this season. A -3.5-point spread feels generous here, so we’re taking it.
- Bills vs Vikings Pick 1: Buffalo Bills -3.5 @ +110 with BetMGM
Under 44.5 Points
For as impressive as Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense are, Minnesota’s defense provides them with a unique challenge. The Vikings are on another planet compared to the rest of the NFL in terms of how often they rush the passer.
Minnesota blitzes on a whopping 69.1% of dropbacks. The next-highest ranking team, the New York Giant, blitzes on just 36.6% of dropbacks, which makes the Vikings’ numbers look crazy. We can’t fault them for it though, as it’s working for Brian Flores’ defence. Minnesota rank second in the NFL for sacks, with 25, and lead the league in QB pressures (35.2% of dropbacks).
The Bills’ offensive line is banged up heading into this game, so Joe Brady and his coaching staff will have to get creative to stop the Vikings’ defense from dominating this game. We expect to see plenty of rushes on Monday and to see Allen under pressure often.
In short, Minnesota’s defense should have enough to keep the Bills from running up the score and the Vikings’ offense won’t be able to keep up with them either way. When you put these two things together, the under makes sense here,
- Bills vs Vikings Pick 2: Under 44.5 Points @ -110 with BetMGM
Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Over 29.5
After rushing for 121 yards against the Rams in Week 5, Josh Allen is one of just two quarterbacks who have rushed for over 100 yards in a game this season (the other being Jayden Daniels).
Minnesota’s pass rush will force Allen to scramble. When he does that, it’s not hard to see him opting for the run — especially since the Vikings commit so many men forward with their aggressive blitz.
While we don’t quite think Allen will cross the 100-yard milestone again on Monday, he should get plenty of chances to rush against the Vikings so we like the over on his rushing yards.
- Bills vs Vikings Pick 3: Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Over 29.5 @ -115 with BetMGM
Bills vs Vikings at US Prediction Markets
US sports traders can buy options on Week 9's closing Monday Night Football clash between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings across all of the best prediction market apps.
The Bills are strong 62¢ favorites on Novig, Kalshi, and Polymarket, no doubt boosted by Kyler Murray's absence for the Vikings. Minnesota have a strong defense, though, and that's keeping the Vikes at 39¢ and +3.5 point underdogs.
The strength of the Minnesota defense is reflected in the game's points line too, with the 50¢ mark for the U/O is at 44.5 points.
All prices correct at time of publication and subject to change.
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Bills vs Vikings Start Time
The Vikings will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Lions in Week 8 when they host Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis on Monday night (11/9) at 8:15pm ET (7:15pm local time). You can watch this game live on ABC and ESPN, with Pat McAfee's Field Pass alternate on ESPN2.
Bills vs Vikings Game Details
- Start Time: 8:15pm ET (7:15pm local time)
- Location: U.S. Bank Stadium
- Address: 401 Chicago Ave, Minneapolis, MN 55415
- Streaming: ESPN App, ESPN+, NFL+, YouTube TV, Hulu