Our betting expert shares his prediction for this Premier League lunchtime kick-off. Everton’s form suggests that they can hold Chelsea to a draw.
Best bets for Everton vs Chelsea
- Double chance - Everton / Draw at odds of @ -175 on BetMGM
- First team to score - Chelsea at odds of @ -132 on BetMGM
- Anytime goalscorer - Joao Pedro at odds of @ +146 on BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Chelsea’s poor away form
Everton have been stronger at the Hill Dickinson Stadium this season than last term, when they were still adjusting to their new home. The Toffees won just six of their 19 home matches last season. However, they’ve already won two out of three league fixtures this term. Their solitary draw at home was a 2-2 thriller with Manchester United, where a scintillating 96th-minute Maitland-Niles strike rescued the point.
Everton shouldn’t be underestimated, especially at home. Chelsea, meanwhile, have struggled on the road in the Premier League this season. Alonso’s men have lost two of their three away games, suffering consecutive defeats in their last two outings.
Despite their impressive performance last week, Chelsea may find it harder to hit their stride here. Chelsea have won just one of their last five visits to Everton. The Toffees won three of those encounters. The Toffees won this fixture 3-0 last season. However, Chelsea have improved since then, so we’re backing Everton for the draw.
- Everton vs Chelsea Betting Tip 1: Double chance - Everton / Draw at odds @ -175 onBetMGM
The Blues strike first
Chelsea are undoubtedly one of the more prolific sides in the Premier League. They demonstrated last week just how deadly they can be in the final third of the pitch. Their 15 goals in six games rank them third in the division behind Brighton and Manchester City.
At the moment, the Blues are averaging 2.5 goals per 90 in the league. Alonso’s men have become used to opening the scoring, as they’ve done so in 83% of their matches so far. On the road, they scored first in 67% of their league fixtures.
Everton, meanwhile, have conceded first in half of their Premier League games this season. However, they have equalised every time they’ve fallen behind, maintaining a 100% equalising rate. Chelsea have also scored first in three of the last five meetings between the sides.
- Everton vs Chelsea Betting Tip 2: First team to score - Chelsea at odds of @ -132 onBetMGM
Pedro’s efficiency is undeniable
Alonso’s attacking unit is functioning like a well-oiled machine. The attack has clicked well, which bodes well for the rest of the season. Leading the line is Joao Pedro, who has continued to find the net this campaign.
The Brazilian is already the club’s top scorer in the league with five goals from five appearances. That accounts for 33% of Chelsea’s total Premier League goals this season. Pedro is on a run of scoring four goals across his last four league matches.
He was Chelsea’s best player last week, recording a brace with his two shots on target. His shot conversion rate of 38.46% is better than the current leader Erling Haaland’s 27.27%. If he gets chances against Everton, he’s likely to put one away, which is why he’s our goalscorer pick for Saturday afternoon.
- Everton vs Chelsea Betting Tip 3: Anytime goalscorer - Joao Pedro at odds of @ +146 onBetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Chelsea
- Goalscorers prediction: Everton: Keirnan Dewsbury-Hall - Chelsea: Joao Pedro
Everton have made their best start to a Premier League season in the last five campaigns. David Moyes’ men remain unbeaten, alongside Manchester City and Brentford. However, they need to start turning draws into wins to maintain their position in the table.
The Toffees enter this matchday fifth in the table, just five points behind second-placed Arsenal. They were leading 2-1 away to Hull City last weekend before the Tigers equalised to earn a point. Still, the Evertonians won’t be too disappointed with where they are at the moment, but they’ll hope to capitalise on home ground advantage against Chelsea.
The West London club have blown hot and cold this season, and last week’s version was certainly on the warmer side. The Blues put five past Bournemouth at Stamford Bridge, making it look rather easy. However, Xabi Alonso’s men have been vulnerable defensively, giving opponents plenty of opportunities to score.
Chelsea must tighten up defensively if they’re to seriously challenge for the title this season. They’re currently level on points with Everton on 10, but sit one spot behind due to an inferior goal difference. Eight points separate them from Man City, but with 32 games left to play, there’s enough time for them to catch up.
Probable lineups for Everton vs Chelsea
Everton expected lineup: Pickford, Maitland-Niles, Tarkowski, Keane, Branthwaite, Garner, Armstrong, Johnson, Dewsbury-Hall, Grealish, Barry
Chelsea expected lineup: Martinez, Acheampong, Lacroix, Colwill, Neto, Henderson, Caicedo, Chavarria, Palmer, Rogers, Pedro