Our betting expert expects an entertaining second half with a goal from a winger who starred for Spain in the international break.
Best Predictions for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
- 1st half - Tie @ +130 with BetMGM
- Over 2.5 goals @ -125 with BetMGM
- Alex Baena to score anytime @ +190 with BetMGM
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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First half to finish all square
Recent Atlético Madrid matches have followed a similar pattern, with most of the action coming after half-time. Three of their four most recent league fixtures have been goalless at the interval. Just one of the previous 14 goals scored in their La Liga matches came in the first half.
Four of Atlético Madrid’s last five games, including their Champions League trip to Liverpool, have been level at half-time. However, none of those matches finished all square.
Backing this game to be all square at the interval looks good at an implied probability of around 43% with the bookmakers. Alaves are yet to concede a first-half goal at home this term. Half of their league fixtures in Vitoria have been locked at 0-0 after 45 minutes.
- Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Bet 1: 1st half - Tie @ +130 with BetMGM
All eyes on the second half
Despite the possibility of a cautious first half, this game should eventually produce plenty of action. Alaves have been a threat in attack this season, averaging 1.57 goals per game. That figure rises to 2.25 goals per 90 minutes at home.
Boye has netted four times across four home appearances so far for Alaves. They rank sixth with 10.0 xPTS (expected points). However, the hosts do have defensive vulnerabilities. Since the appointment of Sanchez Flores in March, they have conceded in 74% of their league fixtures.
Atlético Madrid are still adjusting to changes in their defence this season. Each of their last seven fixtures finished with over 2.5 goals. Backing a repeat offers value here with an implied probability of 55.6%.
- Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Bet 2: Over 2.5 goals @ -125 with BetMGM
Baena’s impressive form to continue in Vitoria
Álex Baena has been one of the standout performers for Atleti this season. He struggled in his first campaign at the Estadio Metropolitano and seemingly failed to convince manager Diego Simeone. That’s why it was a surprise to see the 25-year-old emerge as a starter for Spain at the World Cup.
A goal and an assist in seven appearances in that competition helped the ex-Villarreal man back into form. He started the new season full of confidence, with four goals in seven league appearances. He bagged a goal and two assists in less 200 minutes on the pitch for Spain in the international break.
Baena is also averaging 2.1 shots per game at a conversion rate of 26.7%. He has the freedom to get forward and operate just off the striker at times. His excellent ball-striking makes him a threat from set pieces. Backing the Spain international to score in this game appeals with an implied probability of around 34.5% with the bookmakers.
- Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Bet 3: Alex Baena to score anytime @ +190 with BetMGM
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid
- Goalscorers prediction: Alaves: Lucas Boye - Atletico Madrid: Alex Baena, Jonathan David
Alaves made a strong start to the season, taking 10 points from their opening four matches. Lucas Boye, Toni Martinez and Mariano Diaz have all made contributions up top for Quique Sanchez Flores’ side. However, their recent form has dipped, with defeats against Racing Santander and Valencia. They then drew 0-0 in Bilbao.
Atletico Madrid’s campaign has followed the opposite trajectory. Diego Simeone’s men have taken their momentum into the international break. Los Rojiblancos have won each of their previous three games in La Liga, netting nine times across that period. They were 2-1 winners in the derby against Real Madrid last time out, with Alejandro Grimaldo and Jonathan David on target.
Probable lineups for Alaves vs Atletico Madrid
Alaves expected lineup: Sivera, Jonny, Valentini, Tenaglia, Rebbach, D. Suarez, Blanco, Ibanez, Perez, Boye, T. Martinez
Atletico Madrid expected lineup: Oblak, Hancko, Le Normand, Pubill, Lookman, Hjulmand, Llorente, Simeone, Baena, Kang-in, David