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Texans vs Steelers Predictions
Liam Isola

Texans vs Steelers Predictions - Monday Night Football Picks & Odds

Our NFL expert offers his Texans vs Steelers predictions, picks, and odds for an 8:15pm EST Monday Night Football Wild Card playoff game (1/12).

Tonight, the Pittsburgh Steelers will look to break a five-game playoff losing streak as they host the impressive Houston Texans (-3). The Texans are on a nine-game winning streak and have one of the league’s best defenses. So, under 38.5 points (-115) is an attractive option.

Texans vs Steelers Predictions - 8:15pm EST - 1/12

  • Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Passing Attempts @ -102
  • Under 38.5 Points @ -115
  • Texans -5.5 @ +140

All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

Texans vs Steelers Odds

  • Spread: Texans -3 (-105)
  • Moneyline: Texans (-158), Steelers (+134)
  • Total: 38.5 (O -105, U -115)

Texans vs Steelers Picks

Aaron Rodgers Airing it Out - Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Passing Attempts (-102)

As the Steelers chased the AFC North title over the last few weeks, they relied heavily on quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Over the final three games of the season, only the Cardinals and Lions threw the ball on a higher percentage of their offensive plays than the Steelers.

In each of the final three games of the season, Rodgers went well over 33.5 passing attempts. He averaged 42.3 pass attempts in those games and threw a whopping 47 passes in the Steelers’ 26-24 victory over the Ravens in the regular season finale.  

Now, with wide receiver DK Metcalf back from a suspension, the Steelers have even more reason to continue throwing the ball. Rodgers, who could be playing his final NFL game today in a Hall of Fame career, has gone over this total in five straight games.

  • Texans vs Steelers Prediction 1: Aaron Rodgers Over 33.5 Passing Attempts @ -102

Dominant Texans Defense to Drive Total Under - Under 38.5 Points (-115)

DeMeco Ryans’ Texans have one of the most feared defenses in the NFL. Houston had the number two scoring defense in the NFL this season, giving up just 17.4 points per game. On the road, the Texans allowed just 15.4 PPG.

Each of the Texans’ four road games on their nine-game winning streak has gone under the total. In those games, there was an average of just 32.8 points per game, and the total didn’t go over 36 points once.

Neither team is explosive offensively, and the Steelers are certainly prone to laying eggs. In Week 17, the Steelers faced another top defensive team, the Cleveland Browns, and failed to score a touchdown in a 13-6 loss.

The under is 5-2 in the Steelers’ last seven games at Acrisure Stadium, and it seems likely we’ll see under 38.5 points today in freezing conditions.

  • Texans vs Steelers Prediction 2: Under 38.5 Points @ -115

Steelers Struggling Against Top Level Opponents - Texans -5.5 (+140)

In the 2025 regular season, the Steelers went 1-5 SU and ATS against fellow playoff teams. Four of those five losses were by a double-digit margin. Mike Tomlin and the Steelers have also lost each of their last five playoff games by an average margin of 12.6 points per game.

Like the Steelers, the Texans have made the playoffs for a third consecutive season. The difference is they’ve destroyed their Wild Card opponents in each of the last two seasons, winning by 20+ points against both the Browns in 2024 and the Chargers in 2025.

Houston is on the longest active winning streak in the NFL, which includes three wins over playoff teams. In those games, the Texans covered the spread by an average margin of 6.5 points per game. It’s more than possible that the Texans (-3) win comfortably here.

Take a look at the alternate spreads and consider the Texans -5.5 (+140).

  • Texans vs Steelers Prediction 3: Texans -5.5 @ +140

Texans vs Steelers Start Time

  • Start Time: 8:15pm EST
  • Location: Acrisure Stadium
  • Address: 100 Art Rooney Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15212
  • TV & Streaming: ABC, ESPN, Fubo, Hulu, NFL+, Sling TV, YouTube TV

Two years ago, Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud became the youngest QB in NFL history win a playoff game. Stroud and the Texans, on a nine-game winning streak, won’t be intimidated by tonight’s road game against the inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers.