From Inter's ruthless opening-day record to Frosinone hosting Juventus, here's where the recent opening days point before a ball is kicked in anger.
| 2026/27 Serie A Matchday 1 | Odds |
|---|---|
| Frosinone vs Juventus (Juventus to Win to Nil) | +138 |
| Inter vs Monza (Inter to Win to Nil) | -108 |
| Torino vs Milan (Match Tied) | +270 |
| Genoa vs Napoli (Under 2.5 Goals) | -146 |
All odds are courtesy of US Sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
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Are Serie A openers high-scoring?
In recent seasons, the number of high-scoring opening-day fixtures in Serie A appears to have decreased. In 2021/22, eight of the first ten games saw Over 2.5 goals bets being successful. However, this fell to 50% of games in 2023/24, 60% in 2024/25, and just 20% in 2025/26.
Looking more closely at last season, the weekend featured one goalless tie, three 1-1 ties, and a variety of 1-0 and 2-0 victories.
All of which suggests Serie A’s opening round of fixtures are getting cagier by the year.
The low-scoring opening day trend also connects with the wider picture of the full Serie A season. In 2025/26, Serie A saw 922 goals scored at an average of 2.43 per game. That’s the lowest average in Serie A history when the league has been a 20-team division.
Last season also featured 36 goalless ties, with only the 2011/12 (44) and 2006/07 (39) seasons yielding more in the 20-team era. Both teams scored in less than half (45.3%) of Serie A matches too, well below the 50%+ rates of recent seasons.
It could be exacerbated further still by the impact of the 2026 World Cup this time around.
What happens on Serie A’s Matchday 1 after a World Cup?
This is the angle most punters will miss. In seasons that follow a summer World Cup, star players report back late, pre-seasons are truncated, and coaches are more cautious. The evidence from the last two comparable openers is well worth examining.
In 2014/15, after the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, Serie A’s Matchday 1 averaged just 1.7 goals per game. 40% of games ended in ties, two of which ended in goalless stalemates. Only Milan's 3-1 win over Lazio was entertaining, with the rest of the division seemingly rusty.
After the 2018 World Cup in Russia, goals returned to some extent on Matchday 1 of 2018/19 in Serie A. In fact, 25 goals were scored across the eight games played, with two postponed due to the Morandi Bridge tragedy in Genoa.
The talking point in 2018/19 was that pre-game favourites struggled badly. Inter fell 1-0 at Sassuolo, while Juventus were pushed all the way by Chievo before winning 3-2.
The four betting angles for Serie A Matchday 1 to consider
Frosinone have lost all three of their previous season-opening matches in the Italian top-flight. They are back in the big time after securing promotion from Serie B last season. They face a Juventus side with more opening-day victories than any other club in the history of Italian football.
Juve won both of their season openers in 2014/15 and 2018/19 after the summer World Cup finals. Backing the Old Lady to win with a clean sheet at 41.20% probability seems like a value play. They won ten matches last season with a clean sheet and should keep a relegation-threatened side such as Frosinone at arm’s length.
Reigning champions Inter have been handed a home game first up against Monza. Like Frosinone, they have bounced back into Serie A from the Italian second tier.
Promoted teams have won just one of their last 15 opening weekend fixtures, so Inter are understandably huge favourites here. We’re backing them to win to nil, like Juve, with Monza likely to struggle to acclimatise in the San Siro.
Four of the last five defending Serie A champions have started the following campaigns with victories.
Milan are winless on the opening day in their last two Serie A seasons. Torino haven’t won an opening-day fixture since August 2022. Torino have tied two of their last three, and these two teams faced off first in 2024/25, tying 2-2. There’s a good chance of another stalemate, with Milan’s Ruben Amorim easing his way into the role.
Finally, Genoa and Napoli face off in a repeat of their opening-day matchup in August 2014, following the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Napoli landed a 2-1 win 12 years ago in a cagey, low-quality contest.
This time around, Napoli visit the Marassi with new manager, Massimiliano Allegri, in charge. This is a manager with a career-long reputation for slow starts to seasons.
In 2021/22, his return to Juventus saw the Old Lady pick up just two points from their first four games. It was the Bianconeri’s worst start to a season in 60 years. Prior to this, Allegri’s Juve also became the first Juve team to lose their first two Serie A games in 2015/16.
Genoa opened up last season with a goalless tie against relegation favourites Lecce. We suggest that backing Under 2.5 goals is the value play for the time being.