Serie A hasn’t seen plenty of action. However, the final weeks usually feature plenty of goals. These six matches offer the perfect entry point.
| Serie A (MD 35 & MD 36) | Betting Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Como vs Napoli | Both teams to score – Yes & Over 2.5 total goals | +150 |
| Pisa vs Lecce | Both teams to score – Yes | +187 |
| Inter Milan vs Parma | Both teams to score – Yes & Over 2.5 total goals | +137 |
| AC Milan vs Atalanta | Both teams to score – Yes & Over 2.5 total goals | +110 |
| Parma vs Roma | Both teams to score – Yes | +110 |
| Fiorentina vs Genoa | Over 2.5 total goals | +120 |
Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
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The drought before the storm
This season's Serie A has set an unwanted record. In 185 of 340 games played so far (54.4%), at least one team has failed to score. That is the highest percentage since the league expanded to 20 teams in 2004/05.
The numbers are stark. There have already been 32 goalless ties, accounting for almost 10% of the fixtures. That tally is four more than the entire 2024/25 season, with 40 games still to play,
The average for goals per game sits at 2.43. Only 45.6% of matches have seen both teams score. Only 45.9% have gone over 2.5 total goals.
But the final weeks of a Serie A season tell a different story. In the last four matchdays of 2024/25, goal totals rose sharply. Matchday 35 last season produced 19 goals.
The final three rounds featured 30, 30, and 31, respectively. That is an average of 2.75 goals per league game – well above the 2024/25 seasonal average of 2.56.
The reasons are simple. Mid‑table teams with nothing to play for loosen their defensive structures. Relegation contenders throw caution to the wind. European hopefuls chase productive results. The goals eventually flow.
The following six matches – three from matchday 35 and three from matchday 36 – present clear opportunities to back niche markets. ‘Both Teams To Score - Yes’ and ‘Over 2.5 goals’ markets can provide clear dividends before the season ends.
Como vs Napoli - A top-of-the-table goal fest (MD 35)
Como's European ambitions remain alive. Cesc Fabregas's outfit are level on 61 points with Roma and three behind fourth‑placed Juventus. A top‑four finish is still within reach. Their last match - a 2-0 victory over Genoa - ended a four‑game winless run.
Six of their last eight matches have produced over 2.5 total goals. In the same market, 18 of their 34 games have crossed that mark.
Napoli have their own motivation. The reigning champions are 10 points behind Inter Milan, with the Scudetto virtually out of reach. Second place is their priority, with Milan trailing by just two points.
They have scored a league‑high six away goals in the opening 15 minutes this season. Only one of their last five games has stayed under the 2.5-goal line.
Both sides have quality in attack and vulnerabilities at the back. With European places and bragging rights on the line, expect an open, end‑to‑end contest.
Pisa vs Lecce – Relegation desperation breeds goals (MD 35)
Pisa are at the bottom with 18 points, one below Hellas Verona. They could become the first side officially relegated this weekend if they lose. Desperation is a powerful motivator. Despite scoring just once in their last five matches, they face their easiest opponent on paper in weeks.
Lecce have 29 points, one above Cremonese in the relegation playoff spot. They are on a two‑match tie streak but have also scored only once in their last five outings.
This is a classic six‑pointer. Both sides know that a tie helps neither. Attack will be the only option to redeem their respective seasons. The stakes guarantee that both teams will push forward.
Inter Milan vs Parma – Scudetto party filled with emotions (MD 35)
Inter can lift their 21st Scudetto at home, in front of their own fans, for the first time since 1989. Since losing the Milan derby, they have gone unbeaten in seven straight competitive games.
The Nerazzurri have scored at least three goals in all four victories during that run. Their only clean sheet in the last seven league games came against Cagliari two matches ago.
Parma are unbeaten in four games and have scored in each of those matches. However, never more than once. The Crociati are expected to find the net against an Inter backline prone to conceding late.
Six of the last seven meetings between these sides have gone over 2.5 goals, with both teams scoring.
In the 2.5 total goals market, 19 of Inter's 34 games have cleared the mark – the joint‑second highest tally in Serie A. The title party is poised to be a goal‑filled affair.
AC Milan vs Atalanta – European rivals trade blows (MD 36)
The Rossoneri sit third, but their grip on Champions League football is loosening. Juventus trail closely. Milan have struggled for goals recently, and a packed San Siro demands a response.
Atalanta are seven points behind Roma in the Conference League spot. Both sides have everything to play for in a bid to claim the highest European spot possible.
Only 14 of Milan's 34 games have gone over 2.5 goals this season. The same is true for just 13 of La Dea’s fixtures. However, the context has changed. The two teams desperately need points - defensive caution will tend to disappear. Expect an open, end‑to‑end contest in Milan.
Parma vs Roma – Both teams to find the net (MD 36)
Roma are level on points with Como and just three behind Juventus's Champions League spot. Considering the fixture schedule, everything is still possible.
Parma, sitting 12th, are chasing a top‑half finish. They are four points behind tenth‑placed Sassuolo. Both sides have clear targets as the season comes to a close.
This is Parma's third top‑six opponent in five games. Roma's attacking quality is undeniable, though their flaws persist. The Crociati have proven they can trouble the league's best.
With so much at stake, a cagey affair is unlikely. It is much better to back both teams to find the net.
Fiorentina vs Genoa – Mid‑table fireworks in Florence (MD 36)
Fiorentina and Genoa are bottom‑half neighbours separated by just a couple of points. Both teams have underperformed this season, but both have also shown attacking intent recently.
Genoa have seen 19 of their 34 games go over 2.5 goals – the joint‑second highest tally in Serie A. The Rossoblu average 2.6 goals per league game.
Fiorentina have seen 18 of their 34 games go above 2.5 – the joint‑third highest tally in the top-flight. La Viola average 2.4 goals per game. The average between the two sides is exactly 2.5.
That mark is likely ot be surpassed at Stadio Artemio Franchi.