England arrived having beaten DR Congo 2-1 in the Round of 32, a result that needed a late Harry Kane finish to make safe. While Mexico haven't lost in Mexico City since September 2013. Bet $10 with bet365 promo code GOALBET and collect $150 in bonus bets whatever happens.
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England are -134 to advance with Mexico a slight plus-money play at +110. The over 2.5 goals sits at -110 including extra time, with the under also at -110. Harry Kane leads the anytime goalscorer odds at +135, with Raul Jimenez next at +220.
Mexico have kept a clean sheet in every single game during the tournament. Three group wins and a 2-0 dismissal of Ecuador in the Round of 32. England's Thomas Tuchel was blunt about what awaits: "My understanding is we cannot adapt to the altitude. It's a huge advantage Mexico will have."
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Mexico is extremely hard to beat at the Azteca. That's the wall England have to climb at 7,220 feet above sea level with three days' rest and zero altitude acclimatization. England's last competitive match above 4,000 feet came at the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. They didn't win either of those games. Our soccer analyst has his picks set for Sunday night.
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Mexico vs England, Round of 16 - 7/5 - 8pm ET, Mexico City Stadium, Mexico City, Mexico
Mexico to qualify (+110) is the starting point. The altitude, the unbeaten home record, the crowd, the familiar conditions. England may be the better squad on paper. But these variables are massive, probably mattering more than overall talent on the pitch. Plus money on El Tri to advance is the most logical foundation for this card.
Julian Quinones to score or assist (+175) is the prop I keep coming back to. He scored against South Africa in the opening game and has been Mexico's most dangerous wide outlet across all five matches. Against an England defense that took until the 84th minute to put DR Congo away, Quinones finding a moment in behind is a realistic outcome.
Harry Kane to score or assist (+105) is the hedge position. Even at altitude, Kane is Kane. He has 11 career World Cup goals now and finds a way to be involved whenever England need him most. Near even-money on a direct contribution from their best player is worth a small piece on the other side.
Mexico to advance (+110) and Quinones to score or assist (+175) are where the majority of this card sits. I can see either a 1-0 Mexico victory, or 1-1 through 90 minutes, with Mexico winning in extra time or in penalties at home.
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