Netherlands vs Spain Predictions: Prediction: Bets, Context, and Lineups
Best Bets for Netherlands vs Spain
- Spain to win @ +130 with bet365
- Over 0.5 second-half goals by Spain at odds of 1.80 on Betway
- Second half to have most goals at odds of 2.10 on Betway
Odds are courtesy of bet365 & BetMGM, correct at the time of publishing and subject to change.
Our Analysis: Form of Both Teams
This is a massive game in the revamped Nations League, with the winner of this tie advancing to the finals in June.
In this quarter-final tie, the winner will advance to the traditional four-team summer showdown, and one European giant will be eliminated.
The Netherlands reached this stage in rather unconvincing fashion, finishing as distant runners-up behind Germany in Group A3. They won just one of their last five group games and conceded seven goals, the third-highest among those who advanced.
In contrast, European champions Spain cruised through Group A4, winning five of their six games. They won their last five in a row and have impressively claimed victory in 14 of their last 15 internationals as they bid to defend their Nations League title.
Probable Lineups for Netherlands vs Spain
Netherlands Expected Lineup: Verbruggen, Dumfries, Van Dijk, De Ligt, Hato, De Jong, Gravenberch, Reijnders, Gakpo, Brobbey, Simons
Spain Expected Lineup: Simon, Mingueza, Cubarsi, Asencio, Cucurella, Pedri, Zubimendi, Ruiz, Lamal, Williams, Torres
Spain Secure First-leg Advantage
No team in international football has been as formidable as Spain over the last two years.
Since losing 2-0 to Scotland in March 2023, Spain have lost just one of their last 25 internationals, winning 22 of those.
They lifted the Euro 2024 title in that time and have been a near unstoppable force. Even their sole defeat came in a friendly against Colombia when a heavily-rotated side was fielded.
They have not had any issues travelling in the Nations League either, as they are unbeaten in nine road trips in this competition.
They have actually won eight of their last nine Nations League games and are the defending champions of this competition.
They come into this clash as the side who accumulated the highest number of points (16) of any side in League A of the Nations League.
The Netherlands only secured nine, so there is a clear gulf in quality on this stage between these sides.
- Netherlands vs Spain Bet 1: Spain to win @ +130 with bet365
Ruiz Rifling Them In
Fabian Ruiz, a member of Spain’s Euro 2024-winning squad, looks set to reprise his midfield role for La Roja this Thursday.
The PSG midfield general is fresh off dispatching Liverpool in the Champions League and will see some familiar faces, playing in Oranje instead of Red this time.
He has been talismanic for Spain of late, contributing to the side in more ways than one, with keepers needing to be wary of his ability to target the goal from deep.
For La Roja’s Nations League campaign, he has been averaging a shot on target every other game, maintaining a similar rate for PSG domestically.
With their star forwards likely tied up by the Dutch’s dominant defence, Ruiz may be called upon to aid the attackers, putting him in prime position to target the goal.
Ruiz can run rampant in the midfield offering Spain yet another creative outlet up the pitch.
- Netherlands vs Spain Bet 2: Fabian Ruiz 0.5+ Shots on Target @ + 137 with bet365
Porro Punished
Pedro Porro has been having a rough season turning out for Tottenham week in and week out. Whilst a break with the National Team got him away from North London it is unlikely to be an entirely pleasant evening for the right back.
Hardly the kindest player on the pitch, Porro is likely to have to foul his way through this evening, particularly with the likes of Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay running at him.
Domestically this term he has given up 0.83 fouls per 90 minutes, a rate that increases when he pulls on his national team shirt to a shocking 1.1.
Porro will have the best the Dutch can muster coming at him, and if this season is anything to go off he is ill-equipped to deal with these threats, instead, he will have to resort to the so-called dark arts to keep them out.
- Netherlands vs Spain Bet 3: Pedro Porro 1.5+ Fouls @ +150 with BetMGM