+18 or +21, depending on state | Commercial Content | T&C's Apply | Play Responsibly | Publishing Principles
LSU vs Houston Predictions
Liam Isola

LSU vs Houston Predictions - CFB Texas Bowl Picks & Odds

Our NCAAF expert offers his LSU vs Houston predictions, picks, and odds as they clash in the Texas Bowl at NRG Stadium at 9:15pm EST tonight (12/27).

Tonight’s NCAA Football Texas Bowl features the LSU Tigers (7-5) against the #21 Houston Cougars (9-3, -1). LSU, which struggles to score points themself, has contained some of the nation’s best teams this season, and under 42.5 points (-110) seems to be a distinct possibility.

LSU vs Houston Predictions - 9:15pm EST - 12/27

  • Conner Weigman 50+ Rushing Yards @ +155
  • Under 42.5 Points @ -110
  • Houston -1 @ -110

All odds are courtesy of US sportsbooks, correct at the time of publishing, and subject to change.

LSU vs Houston Odds

  • Spread: Houston -1 (-110)
  • Moneyline: LSU (+100), Houston (-120)
  • Total: O/U 42.5 (-110)

LSU vs Houston Picks

Weigman Will Run - Conner Weigman 50+ Rushing Yards (+155)

Houston quarterback Conner Weigman is proficient with his arm and also highly mobile. The Cougars aren’t shy about calling plays for Weigman to make things happen with his legs. In fact, Weigman has managed 20+ carries in three of his last five games.

Weigman also capped off the regular season with back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances against TCU and Baylor. He has picked up at least 82 rushing yards in five of his previous six games. He has averaged 17.7 carries per game during that time.

There’s a good chance Weigman totals 50 or more rushing yards today, against an LSU defense missing key linebacker Harold Perkins. Weigman 50+ rushing yards is at eye-catching +155 yards and is one of the best bets on the odds board today.

  • LSU vs Houston Prediction 1: Conner Weigman 50+ Rushing Yards @ +155

Injuries, Opt-Outs to Hurt LSU Offense - Under 42.5 Points (-110)

Heading into the Texas Bowl, LSU hasn’t scored more than 25 points against an FBS opponent all season. In the three games since QB Garrett Nussmeier got injured, the Tigers have scored just 16.3 points per game and only put up 13 points against Western Kentucky last month.

Nussmeier won’t play today either, and one of LSU’s top receivers, Aaron Anderson, has opted out of the game. As a result, LSU, which has averaged just 17.8 points per game against ranked opponents, should struggle to put points on the board today as well.

Meanwhile, the Tigers have allowed 19.1 points per game, which ranks 15th in the country. The last time Houston faced a comparable defense, it managed just 11 points against Texas Tech.  

LSU CB Mansoor Delane and LBs Whit Weeks and Harold Perkins have opted out, but plenty of defensive players will be eager to impress incoming coach Lane Kiffin. The under is 4-0 in LSU’s last four games, and I’d go with under 41.5 points tonight.

  • LSU vs Houston Prediction 2: Under 42.5 Points @ -110

Houston to Humble Tigers - Houston -1 (-110)

Houston (9-3) is on the precipice of its first 10-win season since 2021, and the Cougars have put together an impressive 8-4 ATS record in the process. Tonight, the Cougars are playing in their backyard, which should theoretically be an advantage.

So too is having a functional offense, which you can’t say about the Tigers. Houston QB Conner Weigman has amassed 2,475 passing yards to go with 21 TDs and nine interceptions this season.

While the LSU players sticking around for next season should be looking to put in a good performance with Kiffin watching, the Tigers have dropped their last five games against ranked opponents.

LSU has also covered the spread in just one of its previous six games. At full strength, LSU would have a good chance to win this one, but the Tigers have been trending in the wrong direction and will be missing plenty of key players here.

Lay the points on Houston (-110).

  • LSU vs Houston Prediction 3: Houston -1 @ -110

LSU vs Houston Start Time

  • Start Time: 9:15pm EST
  • Location: NRG Stadium
  • Address: 1 NRG Pkwy, Houston, TX 77054
  • TV & Streaming: ESPN, Fubo

Houston has a chance to seal its first 10-win season since 2021 against an LSU team decimated by injuries and opt-outs in tonight’s Texas Bowl. LSU’s offense tends to take a big hit without injured quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.